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Factors that can make power plant investment slow down are low value of REC’s coupled with only an inflationary increase in the price of electricity. Also, if the availability of fuel supply is restricted, or if it is only available at a cost higher than what plants can afford to pay, biomass power will be discouraged. We consider this scenario to be possible, but unlikely in the immediate future. While incentives and policies may promote biomass electric plant construction, the pace and penetration of biomass power plants are controlled most significantly by the fuel supply; it is such a large portion of the cost of operations that it is looked at very carefully by investors. This is why multiple proposals may be vetted at a given time, but if one is built, the others in the wood- basket are significantly adversely affected and are less likely to go forward. If there are reasonable harvesting and procurement standards in place regarding overall sustainability, this factor is likely to increase the due diligence on available fuel supply and prevent over-development of biomass power facilities. If policies are changed to require CHP or a minimum annual net efficiency standard, as some states have done in certain circum- stances and as DOE encouraged in recent procurements, more CHP can be expected. But under current conditions, siting constraints, the required scale for economically viable power production and lack of large centralized demand for thermal at the scale produced by a 20–50 MW power plant will all limit the desirability of power developers to include heat, as well as the amount of heat that can be effectively used by an electricity-led CHP system. We do not see electricity-led CHP as growing in the absence of policies or incentives to encourage that direction. Residential conversions are very dependent on oil and propane prices. In the absence of policies that would encourage large-scale switchover to biomass in residences, such as a substantial increase in the residential tax credit, or a change in building codes or insur- ance standards (to not require a conventional fossil fuel-based system in the home), the trend is expected to remain about the same. Although the use of biomass for home heating is significant, and currently not well-quantified, dramatic changes in the trend are not expected, though as explained below, residences can react quickly to rapid oil and propane price increases. At this scale, residential use will not be a significant driver in determining Massachusetts’ forest resource capacity for increased biomass use or the overall sustainability of the resource. Accord- ingly, the analyses in subsequent sections of this report assume residential use (and all existing uses for that matter) remains about the same as they are. That said, things which weigh in on people’s decisions to burn wood in the home primarily relate to cost of the fossil fuel alternative, and while this consideration may be at the forefront individual preferences regarding energy security and price stability, ease of operation and maintenance, degree of automation and convenience, cleanliness, availability of the wood fuel, heating effectiveness and comfort all play a role. Other factors such as emissions, environmental benefit, energy independence, space, and cumulative impacts are of lesser importance to the individual decision. Biomass options in the home most closely able to substitute for oil are pellet boiler and furnace systems, and these systems are very popular in Europe and increasingly so here. The obstacles preventing large conversion of homes are primarily related to price. A conventional central heating system costs between $2,500 and $4,000 for a typical home. A comparable pellet system would be between $5,000 and $8,500. Even though the fuel is cheaper than oil, its availability in bulk is presently limited, and the cost disparity in systems cannot be made up for by the present 30 percent tax credit that has a cap of $1,500 per home. If one wishes to promote advanced biomass technologies for the home, incentives such as tax credits, change-out programs, and programs that allow homeowners to offset the additional costs of choosing a biomass system either through credits or ability to finance costs through low or no cost options all work to overcome the cost implications. Proposals are pending in Congress to raise or eliminate the tax credit cap, and to develop a Homestar program that among other things supports pellet system installa- tions. Similarly, New Hampshire and Maine each have programs to encourage an expanded residential market. A reliable bulk delivery option and convenient storage and automated delivery to the boiler or furnace are also necessary for the residential use of pellets to increase significantly and displace oil and propane. Cordwood use is limited in growth to those capable of handling and tolerating the storage, handling, and messiness of cord- wood. Outdoor wood boilers avoid some of the indoor mess of handling cordwood, but the low efficiency and high emissions from them are of increasing concern to states in the Northeast, even when compared to conventional wood stoves. Though they are improving, some of the cost-attractiveness of these systems will be lost as their technology improves. One hears periodically about home-based CHP systems, but with regard to biomass systems these are not commercially available, and developing products are very expensive relative to either conventional fossil fuel or biomass thermal systems. There are some demonstration projects using a Stirling Engine design, but these are still experimental or unique applications (Obernberger, et. al, 2003). We conclude from this that electrical generation from wood at the residential scale is not commercially available. With respect to residential heating, it is important to recognize the individual residential component and fuel price sensitivity of the cordwood market when considering net available low-grade wood for sustainable biomass use. Although each homeowner’s use is relatively small—perhaps five to 10 tons per season (2-5 cords)—cumulatively, it can be significant, and often the hardest sector to quantify. In Vermont for example, cordwood is estimated to account for between 30 and 40 percent of all biomass use in the state (BERC, 2007). It increased by 20–30 percent in the single season of 2008 when oil approached $150/barrel. There will also likely be small, incremental increase in thermal applications of biomass at colleges, institutions, and other facilities that have the capital to invest in longer-term payback projects, as BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 24 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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