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the economics are compelling at current or slightly higher than current heating oil prices. These are not going to be common or numerous, as few institutions have the capital to make the change- over, and the payback period of generally between seven and 12 years is too long for private investment interest. To increase thermal applications dramatically, if that is a policy direction Massachusetts wishes to pursue, state and federal incentive programs to provide capital, such as through a revolving loan fund, would be needed . Finally, cellulosic ethanol production has the potential to completely usurp power production at a comparable scale if electricity prices remain low, and oil (gasoline) prices increase markedly. However, the pilot projects under way and supported by the US DOE must prove out, and as such, we consider this scenario to be worthy of watching, but unlikely—especially in the near five to 10 year timeframe. 2.6.2 EFFICIENCY As has been discussed throughout, converting biomass into different energy pathways and products yields varying ranges of Exhibit 2-6: Graph of Efficiency of 18 Technology Pathway Options6 efficiency for extracting the energy value of that biomass resource. Exhibits 2-6 and 2-7 on the following pages show the range of efficiencies for the different applications and pathways selected from most efficient to least efficient. It is important to recognize that what is presented is just the effi- ciency of the process to produce energy or fuel or product from the biomass. This does not include up-front processes to get the biomass to the facility, or additional losses incurred through the use of the end product. For example, for electricity, these efficien- cies do not include line losses or the efficiency of a given appliance to turn remaining electricity into useful work. Similarly, for the transportation fuels, this does not include the relative inefficient (18 percent) ability of your car to take the energy value of the fuel and convert it into the work of moving you down the road. Finally, for the thermal applications, it does not include the loss of heat exchange from the thermal system to a home, or the efficiency of a home to retain heat. These examples show that further down the process more losses of the energy value of the original biomass will be incurred. They may be smaller or they may be quite large, depending on the end use. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY 6 Graph information is derived from Appendix 2-B. See that Appendix for data and sources. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 25 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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