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2.5 EMERGINGTECHNOLOGIES There are several emerging technologies for using biomass that have the potential to change the demand for low-grade wood over time. Most of these are transportation sector related. The US Department of Energy has invested hundreds of millions of dollars over the last decade to augment the ethanol production of agricultural crops (corn primarily) with ethanol derived from woody-biomass sources (cellulosic ethanol). To date, they have sponsored both research and development, funding six pilot scale plants throughout the country. While not yet commercially viable, our transportation fuel demands are so high and this is another area, like heating oil, directly related to our importation of fossil fuels, that the issue is an important one to consider in the context of making policies to support the sustainable use of the low-grade wood resource. To put it in context, the Range Fuels plant near Soperton, Georgia will begin at pilot scale producing 20 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol a year, using 250,000 tons of wood. At its commercial scale of 100 million gallons per year, the wood demand will be over 1.2 million tons of green wood per year for this one plant (Range Fuels, 2010). Smaller scale work in bio-oil (pyrolysis oil) and bio-char (torrefac- tion) are emerging technologies that can help with both trans- portation fuel alternatives to gasoline and diesel, as well as, in the case of bio-char, potentially sequester portions of the wood carbon for long periods of time (Laird, 2008). These systems are operational at very small scales at the moment, but have a potential to contribute positively to the biofuel equation. There are other technologies of similar scale to the bio-oil that use biomass to produce a range of products, including fertilizers, plastics, and glues. All of these products are relatively limited in demand, so source material from forests will not be significant relative to energy demands or other forest product uses. 2.5.1 EMERGINGTECHNOLOGYPATHWAYS The emerging technologies represented here all use some of the heat for other aspects of their processes, so their efficiencies are generally in the 40–45 percent range. Pathway #15 provides an example of a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plant, making 100 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol per year. In this process, the cellulose in the wood is converted to sugars that are fermented into alcohol. The lignin part of the wood is combusted directly to produce steam and electricity. Pathway #18 is a variation on this whereby the by-product of pyrolysis is used to produce other products, such as plastics, glues, organic fertilizers, and fuel addi- tives instead of electricity. Pathway #16 represents a bio-oil and bio-char system, producing 15 million gallons/year of bio-oil, and approximately 21,575 tons of bio-char (charcoal), having heating value of 11,000 btu/lb (dry basis), that can be used as a soil amendment for carbon storage. Pathway #17 is of similar size, producing a syngas that is used to make liquid fuels, with lignin used to produce steam-based electricity. The following chart summarizes the CO2 implications of these pathways: 2.6 GENERALDISCUSSIONANDSUMMARY 2.6.1 THEFUTUREROLEOFBIOMASSUNDER PRESENT POLICIES Electricity demand is expected to increase by approximately 1.2 percent annually, with a peak demand increase of 1.3 percent due to increased cooling demand in the summer (ISO New England Inc., 2009). Air pollution goals, as well as cost and projected supplies, will continue to drive new power production toward natural gas, but for the state’s RPS. In an attempt to reach 15 percent by 2020, Massachusetts is looking to alternatives to fossil fuels to reach its goals. There are several significant wind projects in place and in planning, as well as solar projects, but as biomass power is “base load,” the trend has been to look to it to supply an increased share of the electricity portfolio. Over the next five to 10 years, barring a change in policy or incen- tives, or a dramatic change in the price of fossil fuel or electricity, we would expect the current pattern of incremental proposal and construction of stand-alone biomass power plants between 20 MW and 50 MW to continue to be the major focus of the use of biomass. As described elsewhere, the pattern has been for many to be proposed (214 throughout New England over the past decade, with one constructed), and there are currently four proposals in Massachusetts. In part, the low ratio of “proposed” to “constructed” reflects the marginal economics of constructing plants based on the present cost of electricity, and the desire for investors to recoup costs of capital investment within a relatively short period of time—most private investors look for a return on investment of 20 percent within two to five years5. Events that can speed this up are if the wholesale rates of electricity increase substantially while the policy direction for renewables is maintained. In 2008, Massachusetts paid an average of 16.27 cents/kWh retail for electricity, the fourth highest in the nation and highest in New England. It is doubtful that electricity prices will increase dramatically in the face of the downward regional and nationwide pressure on prices. If Renewable Electricity Credits (REC’s) rise in value and are stabile over a period of several years, this too would encourage construction of more power plants. 5 It also reflects the tendency for proposers to announce projects at a very early stage of project development as a relatively easy means of assessing public acceptance of a given project, so the public announcements are not a good gauge of projects that are truly in advanced development and are likely to be built. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 23 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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