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University of South Florida simulation found that MacDill Air Force Base and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the center of strategic operations in Iraq, would likely be inundated if a category three hurricane were to hit the region around Tampa Bay, Florida.47 Abroad, increasingly frequent extreme weather events could contribute to humanitarian disasters and create the possibility of large-scale refugee flows. Or they could contribute to state failures in destabilized regions of the world such as Indonesia and Africa. In China, a country marked by rapid social change and widening economic inequality, future instability is a realistic possibility – especially if rising sea-levels or storms threaten metropolises on the Chinese seaboard.48 Environmental Issues of Dependence on Hydrocarbons The negative environmental impact of hydrocarbon use provides further incentives to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. The effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climatic stability and air quality is of particular concern. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHG) like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, are entering the atmosphere in larger quantities due to human industrial and agricultural activities. Though GHG play a vital role in keeping the planet’s surface warm by trapping heat from solar radiation, as the atmospheric concentration of these gases increases, warming will accelerate and the Earth’s temperature will follow.49 This process has been accelerating for decades; global anthropogenic (human-caused) GHG emissions grew 70 percent between 1970 and 2004.50 Increased levels of deforestation also compound the problem as trees, natural carbon dioxide consumers, are destroyed, thereby reducing the planet’s ability to absorb the gas. While questions remain as to the rate at which the Earth’s climate will change and the severity of those changes, evidence increasingly suggests that bold action will be required. According to the EPA, “if greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth’s surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2°F above 1990 levels by the end of this century.”51 Hydrocarbons and the Greenhouse Effect The three dominant hydrocarbon-based energy sources include natural gas, petroleum, and coal. Natural gas emits the least amount of carbon dioxide at 117 pounds per million Btu of energy. Petroleum and coal release different amounts of carbon dioxide depending on their chemistry. Liquefied petroleum gas emits less carbon dioxide than petroleum coke (139 and 225 pounds per million Btu respectively). Emissions related to coal vary from 205 pounds of carbon dioxide per million Btu for bituminous coal to 227 pounds for anthracite coal.52 While carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the combustion of liquids (gasoline) and other petroleum products have slightly decreased since 1990 (42 to 39 percent), natural gas emissions are expected to stabilize at the current level of approximately 20 to 21 percent of all hydrocarbon emissions. Carbon 16PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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