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dioxide emissions from coal, the most carbon-intensive of the hydrocarbons, are expected to increase from 39 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 to 44 percent by 2030.53 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) referenced a number of threats related to the increased warming of the Earth’s climate system in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007). Short-term impacts like rising air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level will have major repercussions. Those near-term impacts, however, may pale in comparison to the longer term effects like weather change, water and food shortages, increased incidence of tropical diseases, ecosystem and species loss, and coastal changes whose likelihood increases with even small global temperature increases (Figure 2.4). The IPCC goes further, stating that there is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades, increasing by 25 to 90 percent between 2000 and 2030 if hydrocarbons maintain their dominant position in the global energy mix. Tundra biomes, mountainous regions, and Mediterranean-type ecosystems are likely to be particularly effected by climate change. Human health, in populations with low adaptive capacity, is also expected to be negatively effected, along with water resources in dry mid- and semi-arid low latitudes, agriculture in low latitudes, and low-lying coastal systems. Additionally, the world’s oceans are becoming increasingly acidic as they absorb rising levels of carbon. Growing levels of ocean acidification are expected to negatively impact shell-forming organisms such as corals, as well as their diverse and numerous dependent species. Recent observations have shown the process already underway, and this loss of such a foundational element in the ocean’s ecosystem has many scientists alarmed.54 Other Environmental Risks of Hydrocarbons Carbon dioxide emissions are just one of many threats to the environment from the continued reliance on hydrocarbons. The methods of extraction and chemical composition of hydrocarbons are also responsible for a variety of risks associated with hydrocarbon use. Natural Gas: Even though natural gas emits lower levels of pollutants, its methane content and extraction procedures represent the main environmental hazards associated with its use. Methane (the main component of natural gas) is a potent greenhouse gas with an ability to trap heat almost 21 times more effectively than carbon dioxide. Though methane can leak from natural gas wells, pipelines, and storage facilities, it accounts for only 2.7 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, a result of industry safety measures.55 Potential harm to the environment from natural gas extraction is similar to that of petroleum in that extraction of the resource can involve the degradation of sizeable tracts of land with the additional concern of increased risks of gas leaks or explosions. 17PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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