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Shaping Energy Technology Transition

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Shaping Energy Technology Transition ( shaping-energy-technology-transition )

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national security. The U.S. military is completely dependent on petroleum and there are several geo-strategic implications of this dependence. Continued dependence on hydrocarbons also puts unneeded constraints on U.S. foreign policy. Finally, the effects of climate change and resource scarcity associated with hydrocarbon use are recognized as additional security threats. Military Dependence on Hydrocarbons The U.S. military is dependent on large amounts of oil to maintain its operational capabilities. The Department of Defense (DOD) is the single largest consumer of energy in the United States, using 4.6 billion gallons of fuel annually. That is equivalent to 12.6 million gallons of fuel per day or 93 percent of fuel used by the U.S. government.37 Fuel energy from petroleum is key to U.S. military combat power, propelling Navy ships, Army tanks, and Air Force jets.38 Directly linked to those high consumption rates—which, according to the 2005 CIA World Fact Book, would rank the DOD 34th in the world in average daily fuel use, just behind Iraq and ahead of Sweden—are significant costs. In 2006 alone, the Defense Department spent $10 billion on mobility fuels and $3.5 billion on related facilities and infrastructure.39 While present DOD fuel costs represent less than 5 percent of the national defense budget, a spike or gradual increase in oil prices could well double that number over the short or long term. This in turn would require redirecting financial resources from other budgetary items, which is not only a financial management challenge in a fiscally constrained wartime environment but could also compromise the combat effectiveness of U.S. troops. For example, a $10 per barrel increase in the cost of fuel increases DOD operating costs by approximately $1.3 billion annually, roughly the entire 2007 procurement budget for the U.S. Marine Corps.40 Enemies of the United States understand the importance of oil to both the country’s economic strength and the operational capabilities of its armed forces. A Congressional Research Service report highlighted terrorists’ emphasis on exploiting this vulnerability: “Statements by Bin Laden and Al Zawahiri urging attacks on oil infrastructure and military supply lines could indicate a shift in Al Qaeda’s strategic and tactical planning in favor of a more protracted attritional conflict characterized by disruptive attacks on economic and critical energy production infrastructure.”41 Foreign Policy Constraints While potentially compromising the strength of the U.S. military, continued dependence on hydrocarbon imports also undermines U.S. foreign policy objectives. Energy suppliers such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela have been increasingly willing and able to use their resource endowment to achieve political objectives. This presents a challenge to the United States on at least three levels.42 14

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