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Hydrocarbons have been a cheap and reliable source of energy but its low cost and availability has, until recently, inhibited the development of new energy conversion technology. As long as the costs of using hydrocarbons have been low and known reserves have been sufficient to meet demand, there has been no incentive to innovate. Methods of propulsion and electricity generation based on the combustion of hydrocarbons basically use the same processes to produce energy that were developed a century ago. While the technology that discovers and uses hydrocarbons has continued to improve, different methods of generating and using energy that could substitute for hydrocarbons have not been adequately developed. Technological Stagnation Unfortunately, the energy system is difficult to transform. The nature of energy production, the creation of entrenched interests, and a lack of research and development have prevented innovation in energy technology. Energy projects require large amounts of financial capital and have long time scales for operation. Estimates suggest that complete replacement of all current global energy infrastructure would cost approximately $12 trillion.34 There are also powerful economic and political actors whose power derives from the current pattern of energy supply. With large investments in energy resources, these actors have an interest in preserving the status quo.35 There has not been nearly enough research and development in innovative energy technologies to overcome these other obstacles. Until recently, total public and private energy research and development expenditures have ranged from just $5 billion to $6 billion per year, only 1 percent of what the United States was spending on electricity and fuels.36 The failure to adequately develop alternative technologies, which could have resulted in significant savings, is a lost economic opportunity. The need for an energy transition would not be so urgent if this issue had been addressed earlier. Negative Externalities Many of the costs associated with hydrocarbon use are not borne by either the producer or consumer, which creates negative externalities in the U.S. economy. For example, security and environmental costs, such as military expenditures and climate change, are not incorporated into the price. These costs drain the economic vitality of the United States and present an obstacle to long-term economic growth. Allowing these externalities to continue has also led to unfettered growth in demand for hydrocarbons. Since demand for hydrocarbons is responsive to changes in price, the United States must internalize these externalities into the price of hydrocarbons to reflect the true costs of their continued use. Geopolitical Issues of Dependence on Hydrocarbons Continued reliance on hydrocarbon-based sources of energy has serious geopolitical implications for the United States. Not only could it weaken the country’s leadership role in the world, but it would continue to compromise foreign policy objectives and threaten 13PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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