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Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic PUC 15 Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases and Asia13 is expected to realize the biggest increase in import dependence but OECD imports will continue to rise, especially in Europe. The Middle East is expected to strengthen its position as the world’s largest oil exporter, as energy trade between regions more than doubles, most of it in the form of oil. According to the WEO 2002, “enormous” investments will be necessary to increase production to meet rising world demand – and to move that production to market. Attracting the necessary investment will depend on an investment climate that convinces potential investors that they can earn a fair return on their money. The study estimates that cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants will amount to $4.2 trillion.14 Developing countries alone will need investment of $2.1 trillion to meet growing demand for electricity. Finding the funds, it concludes will be a major challenge. Environment “The environmental degradation associated with the production and consumption of energy today, particularly fossil fuels, threatens human health and quality of life, and affects ecological balance and biodiversity.”15 Yet, the environmental impacts of energy are not new. For centuries, wood burning has contributed to the deforestation of many areas, According to the World Energy Assessment, what is new is the acknowledgement of energy linkages to regional and global environmental problems and their implications.16 According to the WEO, 2002 if current energy efficiency and ecological policies are maintained, energy related carbon emissions is expected to grow by 16 billion tonnes, or 70% above 2000 levels. CO2 emissions will increase faster than demand because the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix grows. The majority of the new emission will come from developing countries. China alone is expected to add 3.6 billion tonnes. If policies are not adjusted, OECD countries with Annex 1 Kyoto commitments will need to rely heavily on the purchase of emissions credits in order to fulfil their obligations. The study suggests however, that if policies are adjusted to reflect a more environmentally friendly posture, OECD countries will achieve cuts in carbon emissions, particularly through the use of renewable energy sources in electricity generation. However, meeting the Kyoto targets is still not expected to be easy. Figure 2 – Map of Global Energy Poverty Courtesy of World Energy Outlook, 2002 13 For example China’s net imports are predicted to surge from 1.7 mb/d in 2001 to 9.8 mb/d in 2030. 14 US dollars 15 Energy for Sustainable Development, A Policy Agenda, UNDP, 2002. 16 World Energy Assessment, pg. 9PDF Image | Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic
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