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Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic PUC 14 1.0 ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT 1.1 The International Energy Outlook9 “The world has abundant energy resources for the coming thirty years!” says Robert Priddle, executive director of the International Energy Agency, one year ago on the presentation of his organization’s flagship publication “World Energy Outlook 2002.” The study, recognized as authoritative throughout the energy world, suggests that the world has no immediate need for concern. However, it does emphasize the need for change in the approaches to the administration of the global energy system10, at the national, regional and global levels, if the benefits derived from energy are to be equitably distributed among the world’s people now and in the future. Economic Outlook/Energy Markets The study predicts rapid growth in the demand for energy to the year 2030, at a rate of 1.7% annually. Thus by 2030, the world will be consuming two-thirds more energy than it did in 2002, and the developing countries will replace the industrialized world as the largest group of energy consumers. In fact, the study suggests that more than 62% of the increase in world primary energy demand between 2003 and 2030 will come from the developing countries11. Fossil fuels will remain the dominant sources of energy, filling more than 90% of the projected increase in demand. Among fossil fuels, natural gas will grow fastest, doubling in volume over the thirty years, but oil will remain the most important energy source. Coal will grow more slowly and its share in the world energy supply will decline. Under present policies, nuclear power will decline as old plants are retired and few new ones are built. Renewable energy will increasingly contribute to power generation. Use of wind power and biomass will expand very quickly, but from an extremely small base. The two energy sectors expected to grow most over the next thirty years are electricity and transport (64%), especially in developing countries. Figure 1 – World Primary Energy Demand Courtesy – World Energy Outlook 2002 To satisfy demand there is expected to be an increase in World Primary Energy Production, with almost all the increases occurring outside the OECD12 countries. 9 This sector draws heavily on the study conducted by the International Energy Agency and published in 2002, entitled World Energy Outlook 2002. 10 The energy system is made up of the energy supply sector and energy end-use technologies. The object of the system is to provide energy services. Energy for Sustainable Development, A policy Agenda, UNDP 2002, pg 28 11 Particularly Asia 12 OECD list of countries includes the majority of the countries in the developed world including the United States, the countries of the EU, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and Mexico. There are 30 countries party to the Convention.PDF Image | Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic
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