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5-51 SL-5641 Final 8.7 GWe. The S&L projected range is a maximum deployment of 4.7 GWe and a minimum deployment of 1.2 GWe. The S&L base case is a deployment of 2.6 GWe. 5.8.1.1 Near Term (2004) The SunLab near-term deployment projection is based on the first commercial plant (Solar Tres) being built in Spain in 2004. Upon successful completion of Solar Tres, a 50-MW plant will be built in 2006. The risk for meeting the near-term goals is low to mid outside of the United States and mid to high in the United States. Project development is in progress for two projects: Solar Tres in Spain and ESKOM in South America. The governments have provided the incentives necessary for the projects to be competitive so that financing can be secured. The Solar Tres current schedule is for permits and financing to be in place by the end of 2003 with commercial operation early in 2006. The risk for meeting the goals in the United States is high since there are no current plans for government-sponsored incentives. However, the Western Governors’ Association provided recent favorable support for CSP technology (EERE 2002). 5.8.1.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab mid-term deployment projection is five 50-MW plants and six 100-MW plants being deployed in the years 2007 through 2010. The S&L mid-term deployment projection is one 50-MW plan being deployed in the years 2007 through 2010. The S&L projection is based on Solar Tres being deployed in 2006 and the first 50-MW plant being deployed in 2009. The S&L projection took into consideration additional time between the first plant and subsequent plants of the same size. The first plant of each size will take longer to complete and reach steady-state operation. Sargent & Lundy projects one 50-MW plant being deployed in 2009 and one 100-MW plant being deployed in the years 2007 through 2010. SunLab projected the first 50-MW plant for 2006, whereas S&L projected it for 2007. SunLab projected the first 100-MW plant for 2008, whereas S&L projected it for 2010. Our estimate takes into consideration the time to identify and incorporate lessons learned into the subsequent plants. S&L was also not as aggressive in deployment projections as SunLab. The difference between the two projections provides a range of deployment. Again, deployment is entirely based on market expansion and the incentives to reach market acceptance. Without incentives, there is no market for towers in the United States in the near future. If market expansion occurs in foreign countries based on incentives, then tower power could be introduced to the United States after it reaches market acceptance.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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