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The SunLab long-term deployment projection is twenty-one 100-MW plants with improved technology being deployed in the years 2011 through 2017; twenty-two advanced technology 200-MW plants in the years 2012 through 2019; and six 220-MW advanced technology plants in the years 2018 to 2020. The SunLab total long- term deployment is 8,734 MW installed capacity. The S&L long-term projection is three 50-MWe plants, four 100-MWe plants, and three 200-MWe plants being deployed in the years 2011 through 2020. The S&L total long-term deployment is 1,214 MW installed capacity. The risk is high for development in the United States since market expansion will require incentives to reach market acceptance (competitive). If there are governmental incentives, the risk of deploying 1.2 GWe from 2006 to 2020, without the advanced 220-MW plant is low. The number or plants is achievable and provides adequate duration between each larger plant to allow for lessons learned and design enhancements. The impact of deployment on LEC is noted in the following table: Table 5-33 — Impact of Deployment on LEC (Keeping Net Efficiency Constant) 5-52 SL-5641 Final 5.8.1.3 Long Term (2020) Year 2020 SunLab S&L S&L S&L S&L Total Net Solar-to- Deployment Electric Efficiency (GWe) (%) 8.7 18.1 8.7 16.5 4.7 16.5 2.6 16.5 1.2 16.5 ($/kWh) 0.0350 0.0524 0.0538 0.0547 0.0559 LEC Percent change from S&L Base Case SunLab Base -4.2% -1.6% S&L Base 2.2% 5.8.2 5.8.2.1 Net Annual Solar-to-Electric Efficiency Near Term (2004) The SunLab projected near-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 13.7%, an improvement of 6.1 percentage points from the Solar Two Demonstration Project 7.6% efficiency. The increased efficiency isPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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