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5-50 SL-5641 Final • The major total investment cost drivers of the tower plant are the solar field, power block, and receiver, which account for approximately 74% of the total costs. Also, the net annual solar-to- electric efficiency has an impact on the cost of a tower plant. The solar field (heliostats and receiver) has to be increased proportionally for decrease in efficiency. For every one-percentage point improvement in the net efficiency, the LEC for is reduced by approximately 0.5%. Total cost reductions occur from technical improvements, increase in plant size (scaling), and volume production (learning curves). All three are dependent on deployment of the technology. Deployment provides a means for continued research in technology improvements, cost reductions due to increased production, and economy of scale from constructing larger plants. The second element of the levelized energy cost is the O&M costs. For the tower plant, O&M costs represent about 25% of the LEC. As such, the focus of the risk assessment covers the following main categories: • Deployment • Net Annual Solar-to-Electric Efficiency • Total Investment Cost • Operation and Maintenance 5.8.1 Deployment Market expansion of trough technology will require incentives to reach market competitiveness. Numerous potential incentives exist, such as: environmental (CO2 emission credits), favorable tax credits, favorable peak energy tariff, premium consumer pricing, loan guarantees, low interest loans, and grants. Analysis of incentives required to reach market acceptance is not within the scope of this report. S&L’s estimate corresponds to the SunLab Reference Cases with near-term deployment in 2004, mid-term deployment in 2010, and long-term deployment in 2020 for comparison. Sensitivity analysis was done to consider the more realistic deployment of the first commercial plant being placed in service in 2006. The earliest a plant would be operational in the United States is 2009 based on the first commercial plant going in service in 2006 in Spain or South Africa, operational experience of at least one year, and two years for design enhancements, manufacturing, and construction. The risk is mid to high for development in the United States since market expansion will require incentives to reach market acceptance (competitive). S&L’s projection is more conservative than the SunLab projection ofPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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