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5-12 SL-5641 Final • Mirror reflectivity efficiency shows an increase from 93.5% to 95%. This will require additional research in the use of thin glass. The use of thin glass will have to overcome several issues: breakage, corrosion, manufacturing, and maintaining cleanliness. The current glass with a low lead content has a reflectivity of 93.5% to 94% depending on the amount of lead. As production volume increases, there will be greater incentive and quality control to provide higher reflectivity glass. For additional discussion on glass research, see Section 4.3.3. • The field optical efficiency shows a decrease from 64.6% to 62.8%. This is reasonable based on the larger collector field size and longer distance to the receiver. • The field availability shows an increase from 98.5% to 99.5%. This is based on better maintenance practices, better quality of heliostats as a result of volume production, and an updated control system. Solar One demonstrated a field availability of 99%. We assumed that actual field availability based on longer-term commercial operation would increase from 98.5% to 99%. The field availability of 99.5% will be difficult to achieve without at least a 5% additional collector field to cover maintenance and outages. • Mirror corrosion avoidance efficiency is projected to be 100%. This is reasonable using the present glass based on the experience at Kramer Junction. Additional research, which is presently ongoing, will be required as thinner glass is used. 5.3.1.2 Scaling Factor Scaling factor cost improvements are based on heliostat size changes: Solar Two (48 m2) to Solar Tres (95 m2) and Solar 50 (95 m2) to Solar 100 (95 m2). Increasing to a 148-m2 heliostat can be achieved based on detailed engineering performed by ATS and actual construction and operation as PV trackers. The scaling factor of 0.8 is a reasonable assumption, even though there have not been a larger quantity of 148-m2 heliostats built. The average industry standard used if no information is available is 0.7 (Humphreys and English 1993). Additional discussion is provided in Appendix B, Methodology. 5.3.1.3 Production Volume Production Volume has a significant impact on cost improvements. The SunLab cost estimate for production volume cost reductions is based on evaluating each cost component and determining the impact on cost reduction (see Appendix E.4.4). S&L performed a detailed review of each cost component to determine the impact. For example the PR ratio for mirrors was calculated to be 0.97, which is reasonable since mirror costs will decrease due to the increased production runs by mirror manufacturers resulting in lower costs (see Appendix E.5.1 for additional discussion). The comparison of heliostat costs based on a cumulative deployment of 8.7 GWe for S&L and SunLab is shown in Figure 5-3. The range of cost estimates by SunLab and S&L fall within a reasonable cost range established byPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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