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5-13 SL-5641 Final S&L (see Appendix B for additional discussion). The range of progress ratios used for the comparison by S&L is between 0.85 and 0.96. Various studies on learning curves from actual data suggest that a progress ratio of 0.82 has been observed for photovoltaics (PV) and 0.82 for development of wind energy during early deployment (1980 to 1995). The higher end of the range is from the Enermodal study for the World Bank, which identified a PV of 0.96 and the Wind Learning Rates compiled by Kobos for development of wind plants. The progress ratio calculated for the S&L base case is 0.97 and 0.96 for 95-m2 heliostats and 0.93 for 148-m2 heliostats. The average progress ratio calculated for SunLab is 0.93. These values fall within the range of 0.85 to 0.96, as shown in Figure 5-3. Figure 5-3 — Heliostat Cost Improvements (Cumulative Deployment of 8.7 GWe) $180 $160 $145 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 95 m2 heliostat $160 148 m2 heliostat $129 S&L: 148 m2 enhanced 148 m2 heliostat Upper Range [PR-0.96] $108 $87 $75 S&L: 95 m2 $150 $127 $107 $115 $96 Lower Range [PR-0.85] 2010 2012 2014 Solar 200 S&L [PR-0.97] S&L Sunlab [PR-0.96] 2004 Solar Tres 2006 Solar 50 2008 Solar 100 2016 2018 2020 Solar 220 The comparison of heliostat costs for various deployments are shown Table 5-5. The S&L cost estimate is based on a deployment of 2.6 GWe. Heliostat Cost ($/m2)PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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