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5-11 SL-5641 Final a fairly accurate cost estimate. It is our opinion that the cost estimate prepared by ADL is a reasonable cost estimate of manufacturing 148 m2 based on producing 300 units (444,000 m2). Our estimate of heliostat costs is shown in Table 5-4. We reviewed the ADL study in detail and compared cost material cost estimates to our internal cost database (e.g., $ per lb for steel). Based on our evaluation, we determined that the cost of a 95-m2 heliostat for initial deployment is about $160. The cost for the 95-m2 heliostat was estimated based on a scaling factor of 0.8, which is more conservative that the industry average of 0.7. Table 5-4 — Heliostat Cost Estimate Comparison: Direct Capital Cost – Initial Deployment Heliostat Size 95 m2 (scaled from 148 m2 at a scaling factor of 0.8) 148 m2 (from Table E-14) SunLab Heliostat $/m2 Cost $14,214 $150 $20,288 $137 Sargent & Lundy Heliostat $/m2 Cost $15,168 $160 $21,688 $146 Cost improvements are categorized into technology improvements, scaling factor and volume production. 5.3.1.1 Technology Improvements The technology improvements include (1) thinner glass to increase reflectivity and reduce cost, (2) improved aiming techniques, (3) better maintenance practices and updated control system to increase field availability, and (4) advanced heliostat for Solar 220. Sargent & Lundy has evaluated the technology improvements for efficiency: • Mirror cleanliness efficiency shows an increase from 95% to 97%. Based on our interviews at Kramer Junction, there is no evidence that the cleanliness will get much better than 95% without a major technology breakthrough. There is current research on glass with surfaces to maintain high cleanliness efficiencies for large high-rise buildings.* S&L’s cost estimate assumes that the mirror cleanliness will stay at 95%. use the maximum number of commodity parts and provide the lowest possible cost for near-term deployment. Approximately 1000 solar trackers of this basic design have been built. Most were the 95-m2 units. One hundred eight of the heliostats used at Solar Two were second-hand ATS trackers. * Several glass manufacturers are releasing ‘self-cleaning’ glass, including Pilkington Active TM (www.activglass.com/index_eng.htm) and PPG SunClean TM (www.ppg.com/gls_sunclean/)PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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