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Potential Lithium Extraction in the United States

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Potential Lithium Extraction in the United States ( potential-lithium-extraction-the-united-states )

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of the global total of 89 MMT (USGS 2022). However, the USGS estimates rely on estimates from the scientific literature and do not incorporate the latest studies. New studies coming available, including industry-funded studies, estimate that U.S. sources could be much higher than found in USGS reports. For example, preliminary estimates from an ongoing study of lithium resources beneath the Salton Sea indicate that there may be 1-6 MMT of lithium metal there alone (M. McKibben, personal communication, May 14, 2022). The USGS estimates that there was 100,000 metric tons of world production in 2021 (USGS 2022), which implies that the Salton Sea could meet global demand for 10-60 years at 2021 levels. Similarly, industry estimates from the 9 states covered in this report indicate greater potential lithium availability than estimated by the USGS. For example, recent studies at the Big Sandy site in Arizona estimate resource availability of 60,000 metric tons (Arizona Lithium 2021). Given the extremely high prices at present, industry has strong incentives to conduct further studies, which will likely result in further increases in estimated lithium resources in the near future. We therefore consider USGS estimates to be fairly conservative and use the maximum site-level estimate from the USGS dataset (2019) in the analysis that follows. Using USGS estimates of availability at sites with over 15,000 metric tons of lithium resources, we examine the state-level distribution and value of lithium across the top 5 states (Karl 2019). These include Nevada, California, North Carolina, Arkansas and Utah in descending order of lithium resources. Nevada has an estimated 8.5 million metric tons (MMT), followed by California with 1.1 MMT, North Carolina and Arkansas with approximately 0.4 MMT each and then Utah with 0.3 MMT (Figure 33). In total, these states contain over 10 MMT of lithium. This implies they could supply the world for over a century at 2021 levels. By this measure, Nevada alone could supply the world for 85 years. Projected future global demand may rise to approximately 376,000 tons of lithium metal by 2030, nearly quadruple 2021 levels (S&P Global 2022). At those levels, these 5 states could potentially meet global demand for 29 years. To capture a sense of the potential economic importance to these 5 states, we estimate the value of state lithium resources in terms of current market conditions relative to state GDP estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (US BEA). Using the ratio of potential value to GDP, we derive an estimate of the number of years’ worth of state GDP that could hypothetically be generated if all lithium was extracted at current market prices, which is not realistic but provides an indication of the degree of urgency that may be felt to expedite major lithium projects. By this metric, Nevada is once again the top state with 19.5 years’ worth of GDP. Figure 32. Top: Percentage global lithium production by region Bottom: Global lithium resources available, million metric tons (Source: USGS) Potential Lithium Extraction in the United States: Environmental, Economic, and Policy Implications 45 AUGUST 2022

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