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Figure 50 The market transition from ambient air-source heat pumps in 1993 to ground-source geothermal heat pumps in 2003 resulting from the Technology Procurement Programme 1994 Source: Karlsson et al., 2003. Market led applications (Table 7) 2003 Ambient Ground/water The above case studies have elaborated good policy practices which have, in most cases, resulted in a significant increase in renewable heat. In addition to the influence of policy, there are important external factors which may also contribute to the development of renewable heat. The following examples, solar thermal development in China, biomass development in New Zealand, and geothermal development in Iceland, are cases where the successful growth of renewable heat has not necessarily been the result of political influence. Rather, external factors such as poorly developed conventional heating infrastructure in China, a strong forest industry in New Zealand, and abundant geothermal resources in Iceland have been the main drivers. Solar thermal in China With an annual production of 15 M m2 of solar thermal collectors at an estimated annual value of €1.495 billion33 , the market for solar thermal in China is the largest in the world by far (Wallace, 2006). This market has developed since the 1980s with essentially no political backing and continues to have an annual average growth rate of nearly 27% per year (SHC, 2007). The drivers for solar water heater market penetration include an abundant solar resource in many regions, a lack of reliable conventional heating options, a well-developed domestic manufacturing industry, and changes in population demographics increasing the demand for hot water. 1) An abundant solar resource translates into an excellent opportunity for the use of solar thermal heating. Two-thirds of China has more than 2 200 hours of full sunshine per year, an annual radiation greater than 5 020 MJ/m2 and around 50 000 EJ of heat absorbed at the surface annually34 (Xiao et al, 2004). 2) Many Chinese lack access to reliable conventional energy resources, especially in the more rural regions of China35. Even where gas and electricity are available for heat production, the distribution system is often unreliable. Moreover, conventional energy prices are volatile and are expected to rise, making solar thermal a more viable solution in terms of both economic and energy security (Wallace, 2006). Therefore solar thermal has become the most practical, and economic means of supplying domestic hot water in many locations. 3) Over 1 300 manufacturers of solar thermal products are operating across China (Wanxing, 2007) with the top eight having an annual turnover of more than €2.9 billion. This strong manufacturing base has implications for both domestic and export markets. In 2003, 75% of solar thermal collectors produced worldwide were manufactured in China (ESTIF, 2006c) and in 2005, exports of them were valued 33. Exchange rate 1 RMB= €0.097. 34. Solar radiation rates in Germany average only 4000MJ/m2/year and in Japan 4500MJ/m2/year. 35. In provinces such as Yunnan where coal and gas are unavailable, solar is the only abundant energy resource (Xiao et al, 2004). 99PDF Image | RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND COOLING
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