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Plan de Energías Renovables 2011- 2020. 3.3.5 Evolución 2010-2020 del mix de generación eléctrica Un análisis del balance eléctrico, véase la tabla 3.3.4, señala a dos fuentes energéticas que, en el horizonte del 2020, se posicionarán de manera destacada en la estructura de la generación eléctrica: las energías renovables y el gas natural, que conjuntamente cubrirán casi tres cuartas partes de toda la demanda eléctrica nacional. Tabla 3.3.4. Escenario de referencia: balance eléctrico nacional GWh 2005 2010 2015 2020 Carbón Nuclear Gas natural P. petrolíferos Energías renovables Hidroeléctrica por bombeo 81.458 57.539 82.819 24.261 42.441 4.452 25.493 61.788 96.216 16.517 97.121 3.106 33.230 55.600 150.755 9.149 112.797 6.592 31.579 55.600 191.156 8.624 146.080 8.457 Producción bruta 292.970 300.241 368.123 441.497 Consumos en generación 11.948 9.956 14.425 17.300 Producción neta 281.022 290.285 353.698 424.197 Consumo en bombeo Saldo de intercambios 6.360 -1.344 4.437 -8.338 9.418 -11.231 12.082 -12.000 Demanda (bc) 273.319 277.510 333.049 400.115 Consumo sectores transformadores 5.804 4.100 6.150 6.604 Pérdidas transp, distrib 25.965 24.456 28.518 33.977 Demanda final de electricidad 241.550 248.954 298.381 359.534 Incremento respecto año anterior (%) 4,26 2,05 4,33 3,89 % renovables s/prod bruta 14,5 32,3 30,6 33,1 Fuente: MITyC/IDAE Nota: En lo que respecta al uso del carbón y su aportación a la generación eléctrica y al suministro de energía primaria consignado en los cuadros de planificación energética, se ha supuesto que será compatible y conforme al marco europeo en la materia. Por su parte, el carbón y la energía nuclear, véase figura 3.3.8, en el periodo considerado 2010-2020, mantendrán pocas variaciones en su producción eléctrica; el carbón con cierta tendencia a aumentar, y la nuclear con un ligero decremento. Se destaca que, en cuanto a los productos petrolíferos, su aportación disminuirá a una tasa media anual del 6,3%. Figura 3.3.8. Escenario de referencia: evolución de la producción eléctrica bruta por fuentes energéticas 65PDF Image | PLAN DE ENERGIAS RENOVABLES
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