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Plan de Energías Renovables 2011- 2020. Figura 3.2.5. Modelización del precio del gas importado en España Precio declarado en aduanas de gas natural importado a España en 2000-2011 vs. previsiones de precio realizadas por el modelo de proyección €/MWh 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 Correlación = 91% son las • • • • • • siguientes: Se asume un crecimiento de la demanda de gas en España a una tasa media del 2% anual desde 2010 y 1% anual hasta 2030. Los gasoductos Magreb y MedGaz funcionan con una utilización del 90% (el modelo considera que MedGaz incrementará gradualmente el volumen transportado durante los primeros tres años), ajustando las importaciones de GNL para asegurar la cobertura de la demanda. Como hipótesis simplificadora, se asume que la compra de gas spot es marginal en los próximos cinco años (5%), y que éstas posteriormente aumentan hasta alcanzar el 15% de las importaciones. La estructura contractual de los contratos a largo plazo en España en este horizonte se mantiene esencialmente indexado al precio del crudo y con valores similares a los históricos. El modelo considera que las importaciones adicionales de GNL se realizan con un esquema de indexación igual al promedio declarado en aduanas en las importaciones históricas La tasa de inflación de 2010 en adelante es 2,3% (en línea con la hipótesis de IEA) y el tipo de cambio USD/Euro se ajusta a 1,28 $/€ a medio-largo plazo. PGas = %Argelia GN ∙ PGasArg +%Resto contratos ∙ PGasResto+%Spot ∙ PGasSpot Pcontrato Pspot = Pcontrato+3,6€/MWh1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Fuente: BCG Para la realización de las proyecciones, de igual forma que en el caso del crudo de petróleo, se han elaborado tres escenarios (escenario base y escenarios ácido alto y bajo) con una serie de hipótesis clave comunes a todos los escenarios de crudo, como Histórico Modelo 54PDF Image | PLAN DE ENERGIAS RENOVABLES
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