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This section thus addresses two central questions: • How much incremental biomass supply is available in the border counties? • How much of this supply is likely to be shipped to new bioenergy plants in Massachusetts? 3.6.1 TIMBERLAND AREA AND TIMBER INVENTORY Timber inventory is an obvious place to start in considering the border counties’ potential contribution in meeting future demand from Massachusetts bioenergy plants. In Exhibit 3-18, we show the timberland areas and timber growing stock inventories in Massachusetts and in the major counties that border Massachu- setts.49 These FIA data indicate that timberland areas in the border counties are nearly 30% greater than those of Massachusetts. The conclusion is the same using the growing stock data. Also noteworthy is that Massachusetts has a much higher share of public land (30%) than the border counties (an average of 19%, ranging from 28% in the Vermont and Connecticut sub-regions to only 5% in New York’s three counties). Thus, when private lands only are considered, timberland areas and timber volumes in the border counties are about 50% greater than those in Massachusetts. This distinction is important because harvesting regulations for biomass fuel are generally more restrictive on public lands than on private; for example, in New Hampshire, whole-tree harvesting is prohibited on National Forest lands. Exhibit 3-18: Timberland Area and Growing Stock Inven- tory in Massachusetts Timbershed, 000 Acres and Million Green Tons; 2008 and thus reflect an average of data collected over the period 2004−2008. County List: New Hampshire: Cheshire, Hillsborough, Rockingham; Vermont: Bennington, Windham; New York: Rensselaer, Columbia, Dutchess; Connecticut: Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland, Windham; Rhode Island: Providence 3.6.2 TIMBER GROWTH When interpreted strictly from a biophysical standpoint, there is a large volume of “excess” wood available in both Massachusetts and the border region in the sense that forests are growing more wood than is being removed through harvesting and mortality. Here we compare the potential of the border counties to Massa- chusetts on the basis of relative rates of timber growth. We should emphasize that relationship between net growth and removals is not a measure of supply; it only speaks to how much timber could be harvested without reducing inventory levels.50 There are a number of ways of measuring and evaluating timber growth. Ultimately, the key variable of interest is how much additional wood will become available in different regions. As noted above, we are primarily interested in private inventories because biomass harvesting is subject to fewer restrictions and owners tend to be more responsive to market forces. Most often, this growth has been evaluated by comparing net growth (gross growth less mortality) and removals. This relation- ship would be an excellent metric (it essentially defines inventory accumulation at any point in time) were it not for the poor quality of the data on removals. Furthermore, issues of data accuracy have become more of a concern in recent years due to the new annualized survey procedures that have been adopted by the Forest Service. For example, the sampling error for removals in 2008 is 45% in Massachusetts and 31% in New Hampshire. At the county level, the sampling error for removals is so large as to make these data effectively meaningless.51 Although any approach will encounter problems with accuracy due to sample size and sample frequency issues, we believe that comparing inventory levels over time is a better method for 50 Even if a forest is not adding new wood each year, it still has the potential to contribute to biomass production; biomass supplies can come out of existing stocks, not growth. From a carbon standpoint, a forest that has matured to the point that the yield curve has leveled off (net growth = mortality) may be a preferred source of material. 51 Data for 2008 for timber removals in 12 Massachusetts counties show: no removals recorded in 7 counties, sampling errors of 100% or greater for 3 counties. For the 13 selected counties that are adjacent to Massachusetts, there were no removals recorded in 2 counties, sampling errors of 100% or greater for 4 counties, and the minimum sampling error for the remaining 7 counties was 53%. The reason for the poor accuracy is that removals are a rare event given the sampling methodology; for example, in Massachusetts, about 120 plots were re-measured in 2008 (20% of the 600 plots in the sample) and with about one percent of timberlands harvested in Massachusetts each year, that means that one would expect to find, on average, only about six plots with harvest activity every five years. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Area Total Private Public Inventory Total Private Public Massachusetts 2,895 2,026 869 694 137 212 38 274 33 1,563 0.80 207 262 81 57 46 69 10 470 1.27 146 62 212 50 70 11 43 15 43 3 1.46 Border County Total New Hampshire (3 counties) Vermont (2 counties) New York (3 counties) 3,712 3,018 1,075 938 755 543 747 708 Connecticut 983 709 (4 counties) 19 2 358 112 Rhode Island (1 county) Combined Total Border Counties ÷ Mass. 152 6,607 1.28 120 5,044 1.49 49 8 0.81 Source: FIA On-line; volumes converted from original units assuming 30 green tons per 1000 cubic feet. Note that 2008 is the nominal date for the survey data, but the data were compiled from annualized surveys 49 Data on growing stock volumes significantly understate the volume of biomass available because of the availability of wood from non-growing stock sources, notably cull trees, tops and limbs. However, our analysis is focused on relative levels—not absolute volumes—and this omission has little effect on our conclusions. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 56 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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