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the historical period—as well as in the forecast period—would be about 300,000 green tons (4,700 acres x 64 tons/acre). At this stage, it is easy to see the importance of the recovery rate. If biomass demand increases due to the expansion of bioenergy plants, then we would expect that there would be an increase in the percentage of material from land clearing that would be chipped and used for biomass fuel. Although it is not possible to quantify historical recovery rates, we can demonstrate the potential magnitude of this biomass source by considering the impact of different recovery rates. A recovery rate of 30% would imply that 90,000 green tons of material was collected and utilized. Each increase of 10% in the recovery rate would add an additional 30,000 green tons to the supply base, so at 70%, the total volume of supply available would be 210,000 green tons. While the disposition of wood from land clearing sources is not known in 2000−200548, it is highly probable that if demand increases significantly for bioenergy uses, a greater share of this wood would be recovered and shipped to these markets. Logistics and economics will govern how much biomass can be recovered from land clearing. The kinds of machinery used, the harvesting methods, and the end-use markets for this wood will vary depending on the size of the parcel being cleared and other site-specific factors. The price of biomass delivered to a bioenergy plant will also be a critical factor in determining how much biomass is actually recovered, as will transport costs and tipping fees when the option is sending the material to a landfill. The potential volume of wood that could be generated from land clearing in 2010−2025 will depend critically on the current disposition of this wood. If current recovery and utilization are low, the incremental volumes available in the future could be substantial. At the extreme, one might consider the increase in volume to be as much as 120,000 green tons if recovery rates were to increase from 30% to 70%. Conversely, if current recovery rates are higher due to tipping fees and competing uses, “new” biomass from these sources in the future would be reduced accordingly. A final consideration is the possibility that this material in being “underutilized” in current markets. That is, if wood is chipped and used in landscaping primarily because it is a good economic option compared to disposal, it is possible that some of this wood could be diverted to bioenergy in situations where that might become a higher value use. 3.5.2 TREE CARE AND LANDSCAPING SOURCES Among the tertiary sources mentioned above, the most significant is wood from tree care and landscaping sources. This wood is often referred to as “urban wood” which is somewhat of a misnomer because it includes wood not only from tree care in urban areas, but also wood from tree care from sources such as county parks 48 The startup of the Schiller plant in Portsmouth, New Hampshire in 2006 makes the comparisons going forward more problematic. The plant consumes about 500,000 green tons of wood per year and has ready access to wood from land clearing in eastern Massachusetts (where most land clearing in the state occurs). and recreation areas and maintenance of electric power lines. The term can also be confusing because it is not always clear whether it includes “urban waste” such as construction debris. A literature review conducted in 2002 indicated that tree care/ landscaping sources accounted for 1.0 million tons (42%) out the total available supply of 2.5 million tons of non-forest wood biomass in Massachusetts (Fallon and Breger, 2002). However, given the difficulties in estimating this volume (noted in the report), this estimate is perhaps best used to suggest that the potential from these sources may be substantial and worthy of further investiga- tion (importantly, the carbon profile of this material is generally similar to logging residues and thus very favorable compared to that of harvesting standing trees). Problems in measuring supplies from these sources may be attributed to: 1) the actual generation of this material is difficult to estimate; 2) it appears that wood from land clearing may be included in this estimate; 3) little is known about the current disposition of these materials, although some broad generalizations are possible such as more than half of the material in the Northeast is “managed on-site”; and 4) the economics of recovering this material are quite variable due to the wide variety of sources from which it is generated. 3.6 BIOMASS SUPPLY FROM NEARBY STATES The outlook for how much wood is available to furnish an expansion of bioenergy capacity in Massachusetts is certainly not complete without considering potential wood supply and demand from the surrounding region. State boundaries mean little in the wood biomass market, as demand, supply, and prices are determined on a regional basis. New bioenergy facilities in Massachusetts would have access to wood from nearby states, while, at the same time, new bioenergy facilities in nearby states would have access to wood supplies in Massachusetts. There are a number of ways to gain some insights into this issue. Our strategy is as follows. Given the objectives of this study, we have focused most of our effort on a detailed analysis of forest biomass fuel supplies within Massachusetts. It is not possible to use the same approach for the Massachusetts timbershed, so we assess the potential of this region by putting it in perspective rela- tive to Massachusetts. Among the key features that we compare are: timberland areas, timberland inventory, timber growth rates, landowner characteristics, and forest products output. We have defined the timbershed as the counties which border Massachusetts: the distance across these counties is similar to the maximum that biomass could be economically transported to bioenergy plants located in Massachusetts. Once estimates of “new” biomass supply potential are developed for the border counties, the question remains as to where this wood will be consumed. This will depend on many factors including local demand, permitting requirements for new energy facilities, who builds first, transportation costs and infrastructure. In the last section, we discuss the implications of these factors for future wood flows to—and from—Massachusetts. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 55 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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