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BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Exhibit 3-12: Biomass Supplies Available from Massachusetts Private Lands under the High-Price Biomass Scenario Annual Rates, 2010−2025 (Green Tons and Acres) Current Harvest Area Harvested (acres) 22,300 Wood Removals 1⁄2 Current High Biomass Prices Bal WT Total 11,150 21,400 Green Tons per Acre 32,550 Industrial Removals 21.8 21.8 Roundwood Harvest 17.1 17.1 Logging Residues Generated 4.7 4.7 Left on Site 4.7 4.7 Harvested for Biomass Fuel 0.0 0.0 Whole-Tree Biomass Removals 0.0 0.0 Whole-Tree Harvest 0.0 0.0 Logging Residues Left on Site 0.0 0.0 Total Removals 21.8 21.8 Total Biomass Harvest 0.0 0.0 Wood Removals 000’s of Green Tons Industrial Removals 485 243 Roundwood Harvest 381 191 Logging Residues Generated 104 52 Left on Site 104 52 Harvested for Biomass Fuel 0 0 Whole-Tree Biomass Removals 0 0 Whole-Tree Harvest 0 0 Logging Residues Left on Site 0 0 Total Removals 485 243 Total Biomass Harvest 0 0 12.3 15.5 10.1 12.5 2.2 3.1 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.9 34.5 22.6 31.0 20.4 3.4 2.3 46.8 38.2 32.4 21.3 263 506 216 406 48 100 17 69 31 31 737 737 664 664 74 74 1,001 1,243 694 694 Notes: “Current Harvest’” is a projection assuming that commercial harvests continue at average levels of the past several years and there is no additional harvesting for biomass. With the High-Price Biomass scenario, one half of acres of the “original” footprint are assumed to be managed in the same way as in the Current Harvest Projection (“1⁄2 Current”), and balance of the acres are assumed to be managed more intensively using whole-tree harvesting techniques (“Bal WT”). To put these results in perspective, we have looked to the litera- ture for estimates that may provide useful comparisons of the timber supply response. The response of harvest levels to prices is commonly measured as the timber supply elasticity. For statis- tical reasons, harvest response to income is not comparable to harvest response to prices. Nevertheless, a few comments on timber supply elasticities are useful. Most econometric studies have found timber supply to be very inelastic for non-industrial private ownerships. In fact, a meta-analysis indicated that of the 19 relevant studies that were reviewed, seven did not find a significant relationship between harvests and prices, that is, prices do not affect harvest decisions (Beach et al., 2003). The study also concluded that there often was not enough informa- tion in this research to compute supply elasticities (some were binary choice models). In spite of all the work and research that has been done over the past two decades on this topic, the default value for the supply elasticity that frequently appears for non-industrial private landowners is 0.3, which seems to date from Adams and Haynes (1996). In our scenario, we have assumed that biomass stumpage prices increase to $20 per green ton. With our price and harvest assumptions, per-acre incomes about double. The High-Price Biomass scenario also shows a 50% increase in acres harvested. If we consider the landowner decision variable to be how many acres to harvest, then our results suggest that a 1% increase in income results in a 0.5% increase in harvest activity. As we have said, this “elasticity” cannot be directly compared with the timber supply elasticity; however, in terms of first-order approximations, both are inelastic suggesting that the behavior assumed for Massachusetts landowners is not inconsistent with previous research. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 50 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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