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substantial increase in landowner income brings more land into production. Forest biomass fuel becomes a primary timber product, much as pulpwood is today, and we assume that bioenergy plants can outbid their competitors for pulpwood and low-grade sawlogs and that this material is harvested more intensively as well. It is worth noting that $20 per green ton is equivalent to prices of about $50 per cord and $100 per MBF (International 1⁄4" log rule). While is a good deal of uncertainty associated with many of the assumptions in this analysis, we believe that developing this forecast provides useful guidance while demonstrating many of the important factors at work. Following the presentation of the results, we provide some sensitivity analysis to key assumptions along with some discussion of the conclusions. This projection is predicated on the following key assumptions: • One half of the original harvest footprint of 22,300 acres continues to be managed as it has been in recent years. The same volume of sawtimber and other industrial roundwood will be harvested and no logging residues are harvested for biomass because the economics do not justify such low- volume operations. (As in the previous scenario, the pulpwood producedinthis “original”shareoftheharvestisstillassumed to be consumed in this end-use market, although it could easily be diverted to biomass fuel at the assumed price levels.) • Onehalfofthe“original”22,300acresreceivesilvicultural treatments that include whole-tree biomass harvesting.43 With the introduction of whole-tree harvesting on these acres, trees formerly harvested for other industrial markets are now chipped for biomass. Sixty-five percent of sawtimber tops and limbs are harvested for biomass. • Oftheremainingacreageavailableannually(20,500acres, or 42,800 minus 22,300), one half is assumed to be drawn into production for whole-tree biomass harvests. The same amount of sawtimber is removed as on other lands, but all other roundwood harvested is used for biomass. • Forwhole-treebiomassharvests,25greentonsarecutperacre as higher prices increase the harvest intensity of “lower-value” wood. Of this volume, 10% of all material is left on the site for ecological reasons (equivalent to 1/3 of tops and limbs). Projections for this High-Price Biomass scenario are shown in Exhibit 3-12, with the land classified as “1⁄2 Current” (land harvested as in recent years) and “Bal WT” (the balance of land harvested with whole-tree harvesting). Removals per acre average 21.8 green tons in 1⁄2 Current, compared to 46.8 green tons in Bal WT; removals per acre average 38.2 green tons statewide, as more acres are brought into production and harvested more intensively than in the Low-Price Biomass scenario. Total forest 43 As noted in our previous scenario, this assumption is consistent with an electric power demand scenario and can be easily modified for thermal or CHP demand. The main difference would be that if loggers do not use whole-tree methods, then tops and limbs would be excluded from the harvest volumes. biomass fuel harvested averages 32.4 green tons per acre in Bal WT, resulting in an average of 21.3 green tons per acre for all private lands in Massachusetts. On the acres where biomass is harvested, 31.0 green tons come from whole trees, while only 1.4 green tons consist of residues from sawtimber harvests. As shown in Exhibit 3-12, this scenario results in 694,000 green tons of additional biomass produced for bioenergy from private lands in Massachusetts. This represents an increase of about 510,000 green tons from our Low-Price Biomass scenario: approximately 1/3 of the additional material comes from increased harvesting of “low-value” timber and the diversion of wood formerly harvested for non-sawtimber industrial uses to biomass; the remaining 2/3’s comes from new land that is brought into production. This estimate is intended to represent an upper limit for biomass fuel production in Massachusetts, given the biophysical availability of wood and our assessment of how landowners might respond in a situation with much higher biomass prices. We think this scenario provides a reasonable representation of biomass supply over the medium term with biomass stumpage prices near $20 per green ton (as noted earlier, this analysis does not account for logging and infrastructure constraints that may restrict harvesting in the near term). There are, of course, many uncertainties in this scenario and thus some sensitivity analysis to key assumptions is important. One crucial assumption is the harvest intensity with higher stumpage prices. Our scenario shows total timber removals averaging 47 green tons an acre for harvested acres that include biomass production. This is more than twice the current average harvest of about 22 green tons per acre. Nevertheless, with biomass stumpage prices of $20 per green ton, bioenergy plants could compete for most timber on a typical stand and could probably consistently outbid lumber producers for Grade 3 sawtimber. If we raise per-acre biomass removals from 35 green tons to 50 green tons (total removals increase to 62 green tons per acre), then the biomass harvest would increase from 0.7 million tons to 1.0 million tons. A further biomass increase to 60 green tons per acre would increase the forest biomass harvest to 1.2 million tons. Another important assumption is the percentage of operable area that is harvested at higher prices. If we increase the additional area that is brought into production from one-half to two-thirds (from 10,250 acres to 13,667 acres), then the total biomass harvest would increase to about 800,000 green tons. On the other hand, if all acres were brought into production (20,500 additional acres), then the total biomass harvest from private lands would increase to 1.0 million green tons. Relaxing some of our assumptions increases harvest estimates to 800,000 tons and above. In order to acknowledge these key uncertainties, we have summarized our results as a range from 650,000 to 850,000 green tons. Estimation of the upper end of this range is not scientific, but simply reflects our judgment of the uncertainty in these estimates and the likelihood that harvests could be higher. Importantly, it is a reminder to use caution in using these harvest levels as point estimates. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 49 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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