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Analysis of landowner attitudes leads to the conclusion that interest in timber production is highly correlated with size of forest hold- ings, and most owners of small parcels choose to own forest land for reasons other than wood harvesting (although they are often interested in obtaining fuelwood for their own use). For example, for the land held in parcels less than 10 acres, a large majority of the land would not be logged or there would be “minimal activity to maintain forest land” during the next five years, while all respondents said they would not harvest sawlogs or pulpwood.39 Butler et al. (2010) suggest that the minimum operable size for timber harvesting may now be about 15 acres, and might be increasing into the range of 30 acres, based on studies that have evaluated the economies of scale associated with modern harvesting equipment. Surveys of minimum economical scale for whole-tree harvesting in Vermont among different stakeholder groups provided responses that were concentrated around 800 green tons per logging opera- tion (Sherman, 2007). Average responses by group were: foresters, 27 acres at 12 cords per acres (810 green tons); logging contractors, 23 acres at 14 cords per acre (805 green tons); chipping contractors, 15 acres at 21 cords per acre (788 green tons). These data suggest that removing an average of 25 green tons of the wood on an acre would require a logging site of at least 30 acres. Using the information on both landowner attitudes and econo- mies of scale, we have excluded parcels less than 20 acres from the operable land base. While there seems to be evidence that the harvest threshold may now be above this level, we have tried to be conservative in an effort to establish an upper bound to the operable harvest base. In addition, this lower level allows for the use of current equipment and harvesting methods that may be suitable for smaller-scale production for thermal and CHP plants. Another reason that this threshold is likely to be “conservative” and tend to overstate the amount of land available for harvesting and biomass production is that we have not attempted to project changes in the distribution of land ownership by parcel size in the future. There have been significant reductions in average parcel size historically (Kittredge, 2009). Perhaps more importantly for our analysis, projections suggest that there are likely to be significant increases in private forest land development in central and southeastern Massachusetts from 2000 to 2030 (Harvard Forest, 2010). However, as noted with land clearing, it is difficult to quantify these developments and they are more critical for long-term projections than over the next 15 years. The final adjustment to the land base relates to landowner attitudes of those who hold parcels that are greater than our threshold of 20 acres. Surveys of family forest owners indicate that those who hold parcels greater than 50 acres also place high value on benefits other than commercial timber production. For example, when asked about their management intentions for the next five years, owners of 56% of the land said they would do nothing or engage 39 The rationale for eliminating these parcels from biomass harvesting becomes more obvious when one considers that the average parcel size in the 1−9 acre size class is only 2 acres. in minimal activity as compared to 43% who planned to harvest sawlogs. In response to their reason for owning their land, 71% (again, based on acreage) said for beauty and scenery, 51% said for privacy, and only 34% said to produce sawlogs or pulpwood. At the same time, although timber income is not a primary motiva- tion for owning land, it is still important as owners of 66% of the land reported having a commercial harvest on some portion of their land during their tenure. (All data are from the National Woodland Ownership Survey, on-line data, Butler et al., 2008.) Based on these survey data, we have reduced the available area of family-owned forest parcels that are greater (or equal to) 20 acres by 20%, which believe is conservative. We have assumed the same adjustment is appropriate for landowners in the “other private” category. A summary of the results from our process of netting down the private land area to obtain the operable land base is shown in Exhibit 3-11. Our methodology and assumptions reduce the total private land base by 51%, thus leaving 1,071,000 acres of private land available for harvesting in Massachusetts. It is interesting to compare these results with two other studies for Massachusetts that use similar methods, but different assumptions. Kelty et al. (2008) provides two scenarios of private land availability: the higher has 1,072,000 operable acres when 10 acres is used as a parcel size threshold (and other constraints are introduced) 40; a second scenario with a 100-acre threshold shows only 379,000 acres available (which seems somewhat extreme compared to our calculations). Butler et al. (2010) estimate that biophysical and social constraints on private lands might reduce the wood available from family-owned forests by 68% (we show a 59% reduction for the family-forest category). That study also uses a 20-acre threshold, but assumes a much larger reduction due to social constraints. Exhibit 3-11: Private Land Area Available for Timber Harvesting in Massachusetts, After Deductions for Biophysical and Social Constraints 000 Acres BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Total Timberland Area Reduce for Physical Constraints (5%) Reduce for Small Parcels (< 20 Acres) Reduce for Other Social Factors (20%) Percentage Available Owners 1,686 1,602 870 696 41% Private Total 493 2,179 468 2,070 468 1,339 375 1,071 76% 49% Family Other 3.2.4.2 Harvest Schedule for the Operable Land Base The above analysis provides an estimate the total size of the oper- able land base. The 22,300 acres that are already being harvested 40 It is tempting to consider the nearly identical results as confirmation of the validity of one or both approaches. The two approaches are different, and the fact that the results are almost identical is coincidental. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 47 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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