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• What is an appropriate harvest schedule for these lands, or over what period might we expect initial harvests to begin and for these lands to be brought under management? • Whatshareofthislandislikelytobedrawnintoproduction at different price levels? Harvesting these lands is not an all or nothing proposition, so here we consider how landowners may respond to higher biomass prices and the higher income they may receive from such harvests. After discussing each of these factors, we provide a forecast of biomass supplies at much higher demand and price levels. We then review some key areas of uncertainty and provide some sensitivity analysis for important assumptions. 3.2.4.1 Estimation of the Size of the Operable Private Forest Land Base in Massachusetts As shown earlier, the area of private land harvested in Massa- chusetts has been very stable over the past 15 years, and has not exceeded 25,000 acres during the 25 years for which we have data. This sort of stability would be consistent with a regulated forest where each age class has the same number of acres. However, this is far from the case in Massachusetts, which would be better described as an even-aged forest due to the high concentration of timber in a few age classes: Exhibit 3-9 indicates that about 50% of the acreage on private lands in Massachusetts is in the 61−80 year stand-age grouping (according to Kelty et al., 2008, this is about the age that the first partial thinning is done by most owners interested in harvesting timber). Much of the standing timber inventory in Massachusetts can be considered already mature or approaching maturity; in fact, natural mortality exceeds removals according to the FIA data for 2008.37 These age-class data suggest that with higher demand and higher prices, harvesting activity could increase and break out of the stable pattern seen historically. Exhibit 3-9: Number of Timberland Acres by Age Class, Private Land Owners, 000’s (2004−2008) In order to estimate the size of the operable land base on private lands, we rely on a variety of studies and a growing body of research on landowner behavior and factors that affect willingness to harvest. Our general approach, which has become fairly standard, is to reduce the total land area to account for: 1) physical land attributes that limit logging access; 2) small parcels that have a low probability of being harvested due to economic and social factors; and 3) lack of landowner interest in producing timber due to the higher value of nontimber benefits.38 Physical factors appear to be relatively unimportant in limiting harvesting activity in Massachusetts. A study by Butler et al. (2010) indicated that 6% of the land in family-forest ownership should be considered unavailable due to biophysical restrictions (primarily slope and hydric physiographic class). Kelty et al. (2008) assumed 7% of forest land was off limits to logging based on a review of forest plans for the Quabbin state forest. For our scenarios, we have reduced the private land area by 5% to account for these factors, and have done so assuming that the restrictions are distributed equally across all groups and size classes. Our next step is to eliminate parcels of small size. The rationale for their removal is twofold: 1) the attitudes of owners holding small parcels, who tend to be focused on forest benefits other than timber income; and 2) the relatively high costs of wood production on small parcels, which becomes much more important when whole-tree harvesting of biomass fuel is considered. The distribution of acres across ownership size classes is presented in Exhibit 3-10. Exhibit 3-10: Number of Acres Held by Size of Holdings, Private Land Owners, 000’s (2002−2006) BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Age Class 0−20 21−40 41−50 51−60 61−70 71−80 81−90 91−100 100−120 120+ TOTAL Source: FIA data. Acres Percent 24 1% 69 3% 142 7% 202 10% 529 26% 507 25% 373 18% 101 5% 60 3% 18 1% 2,026 100% Acre Class Family 1−9 562 10−19 208 20−49 187 50−99 250 100+ 479 TOTAL 1,686 Other Total 0 562 0 208 61 248 62 312 370 849 493 2,179 Percent #Owners 26% 261 10% 17 11% 8 14% 4 39% 3 100% 293 37 Although these differences are not statistically significant given the large sampling errors associated with both removals and mortality. Notes: Data are from Family Forest Owners of the United States, 2006 (Butler, 2008). Family owners are defined as “ families, individuals, trusts, estates, family partnerships, and other unincorporated groups of individuals that own forest land.” Other private owners are industry, corporations, clubs, and associations. 38 We should note that we have not adjusted the total land area for land clearing and conversion. If forest land clearing continues at recent historical rates (which we discuss in more detail in Section 3.5.1), this would mean a reduction of about 70,000 acres of private forest land (only 3% of the total) over the next 15 years. However, as noted earlier, this number could be much larger historically (and going forward), but it is difficult to measure the magnitude of the shift accurately and to document the exact causes of land use changes. However, this shift clearly becomes of greater consequence over a longer time horizon. In addition, land clearing is linked to trends in land fragmentation which has important implications for wood supply. 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