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for removal rates is one of the key assumptions in this scenario. Further analysis of these removal rates is provided below. The share of land assumed to be harvested using whole-tree methods is also a critical assumption in this scenario. The relationship between biomass production and this share is linear in our formulation since we are working with “average” acres. Thus, if whole-tree harvesting and increased harvesting intensity were used on only one-quarter of all private lands being harvested commercially, production of biomass for bioenergy would be reduced to 92,000 green tons; similarly, if these practices were extended to all commercial harvests on private lands, biomass production would increase to 368,000 green tons. In the next section, we review related data from nearby states to provide some perspective on these estimates of forest biomass produc- tion for Massachusetts. The data from nearby states give us some confidence that our forecasts are in the appropriate range; however, it is difficult to say for sure without more detailed analysis of timber sales and more experience with biomass harvesting in Massachusetts. Exhibit 3-8: Biomass Supplies Available from Massachusetts Private Lands under the Low-Price Biomass Scenario 3.2.3.5 The Experience in Nearby States It is useful to consider this outlook for whole-tree harvesting with respect to other states in New England where whole-tree harvesting is now more extensive than in Massachusetts and has a much longer history, and thus might be considered to be in a mature phase. Maine and New Hampshire, with relatively large forest products industries and well-developed wood-fired power plant sectors, may represent the potential for whole-tree harvesting when the industry pursues more aggressive harvest yields with mechanization. State harvest reports indicate the following: in Maine (Maine Forest Service, 2009), forest biomass chips comprised 23% of the total harvest of roundwood products in 2008 (3 million green tons out of a total harvest of 13 million green tons); in New Hampshire (New Hampshire Report of Cut, 2008), the comparable share was 24% in 2000−2006 (790,000 green tons out of a total harvest of 3.2 million green tons, on average). Whole-tree harvesting is not practiced to the same extent in Vermont (Vermont Forest Resource Harvest Summary, various years), where forest biomass chips represented an average of 13% in 2000−2006 (200,000 green tons out of a total harvest of 1.5 million green tons, on average). BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Annual Rates, 2010−2025 (Green Tons and Acres) Current Harvest 1⁄2 Current 22,300 11,150 Low Biomass Price Green Tons per Acre 21.8 21.8 21.8 17.1 17.1 17.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 21.8 21.8 36.8 0.0 0.0 16.5 000’s of Green Tons 485 243 243 381 191 191 104 52 52 104 52 18 0 0 34 0 0 167 0 0 151 0 0 17 485 243 410 0 0 184 1⁄2 WT Total Area Harvested (acres) Wood Removals Industrial Removals Roundwood Harvest Logging Residues Generated Left on Site Harvested for Biomass Fuel Whole-Tree Biomass Removals Whole-Tree Harvest Logging Residues Left on Site Total Removals Total Biomass Harvest Wood Removals Industrial Removals Roundwood Harvest Logging Residues Generated LeftonSite Harvested for Biomass Fuel Whole-Tree Biomass Removals Whole-Tree Harvest Logging Residues Left on Site Total Removals Total Biomass Harvest 11,150 22,300 21.8 17.1 4.7 3.2 1.5 7.5 6.8 0.7 29.3 8.3 485 381 104 70 34 167 151 17 652 184 Notes: “Current Harvest” is a projection assuming that commercial harvests continue at average levels of the past several years and there is no additional harvesting for biomass. With the increased harvest in the Low-Price Biomass scenario, one half of acres are assumed to be managed in the same way as in the Current Harvest Projection (“1⁄2 Current”), and one half of acres are assumed to be managed more intensively using whole-tree harvesting techniques (“1⁄2 WT”). MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 44 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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