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important limitations with regard to coverage and timing14, they are the best data source available to identify important long-term trends in harvesting activity in Massachusetts. We have obtained these data for 2001−2009 from the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, and for 1984−2000 from research at the Harvard Forest (Kittredge et al., 2009). The FCP data indicate that the average annual volume of wood “harvested” from private lands in 2001−2009 was 323,000 green tons.15 Average volumes by end-use market according to these plans were 224,000 green tons of sawtimber, 84,000 green tons of “pulpwood,” and 16,000 green tons of fuelwood. However, one must be cautious in interpreting these data because wood that is classified as pulpwood may actually be consumed for fuel, either in residential or industrial uses—wood classifications and conversions to green tons are discussed in more detail later in this section. In order to analyze these data, we first consider acres harvested on all private lands, which are shown in Exhibit 3-2. Harvested acres dropped sharply in the late 1980s, but rebounded by the mid-1990s and have been relatively flat since that time. In fact, the stability of the private land area harvested over the past 15 years is remarkable given the number of factors that influence this trend, including overall demand levels for wood products, and harvest volumes supplied from public lands and land clearing activity. We should note that forest industry lands are only a small portion of the private land base in Massachusetts (harvests on industrial lands account for only about 5% of acreage as well as 5% of volume removed); thus, we have not disaggregated private lands into industrial and non-industrial components as is commonly done in timber supply analysis. This “stable” trend is more interesting in light of the fact that the area of private timberland in Massachusetts has declined by 20% during this period, from 2.5 million acres in 1985 to 2.0 million 14 Important limitations include: 1) they are pre-harvest plans and thus the volume to be harvested is only an estimate of what was actually cut; 2) once filed, the plans can be implemented over the following two years and there may be extensions (for two additional years); in addition, those who file may choose not to harvest at all; 3) they are only required for wood harvests greater than 50 cords or 25,000 board feet; 4) they are only required if the land remains in forest use and thus do not include land clearing. These issues are discussed in Ch. 132 of the Massachusetts Forest Cutting Practices Act and by Kittredge et al., 2009. 15 Although these data are pre-harvest levels as stated in the Forest Cutting Plans, we refer to them as though they are “actuals,” partly for convenience, but also because we have adjusted them, reducing the levels by 5% (based on information reported by Kittredge et al., 2009) and using a distributed lag function to allocate harvests over multiple years to account for the fact that those who file plans have up to two years to harvest with the possibility of extensions. acres in 2008 according to FIA data16 (these data suggest that this shift was primarily due to a transfer of timberlands from private to public ownerships, with land conversion playing a much less important role17). While the stability in area harvested is open to various interpretations, the most probable explanation would relate to the small share of land that is harvested. Thus, in spite of the increasing fragmentation of the land base and the small average parcel size of ownership, the data suggest that much of the harvesting in Massachusetts may take place on an operable land base that may not have changed much over this period of time. Exhibit 3-2: Acres Harvested on All Private Lands, 1985−2009 Note: Derived from Forest Cutting Plans assuming 95% of plans are completed. As noted above, sawtimber demand is the key driver of harvesting activity on Massachusetts timberland and thus critical to the analysis of potential biomass supply. Over the historical time period, the sawtimber harvest on a per-acre basis has ranged from a low of about 1,600 board feet (International 1⁄4" log rule) in 1991 to a high of 2,200 board feet in 2006 (Exhibit 3-3). The average in 1994−2009 was 2,000 board feet per acre.18 The stability in the volume of sawtimber harvested on private lands in 1994−2009 contrasts markedly with the large decline in lumber production during this period. Lumber production in Massachusetts was just over 100 million board feet in 1993 and 16 Reference to FIA data is made frequently throughout this report. FIA refers to the Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program which provides detailed data on forests and forestland based on surveys by the U.S. Forest Service. 17 It should be noted that it is difficult to quantify accurately the magnitude of these land shifts and different data sources can lead to different conclusions. For example, using the same FIA database and considering forestland in Massachusetts (forestland area is about 5% greater than timberland area) suggests larger losses in the private land base, smaller gains in the public land base, and a much higher share of land lost to conversion. Data that provide direct measurements of land conversion in Massachusetts are discussed later, but these data also have numerous problems and are not consistent with the FIA trends. 18 It is interesting to note that Kelty et al., 2008 report that a 50% overstory thinning on average private lands in Massachusetts would yield 2 MBF (International 1⁄4" log rule) per acre. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 37 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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