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these sources may be substantial and worthy of further investiga- tion (importantly, the carbon profile of this material is generally similar to logging residues and thus very favorable compared to that of harvesting standing trees). Two other important sources of wood biomass that should be noted are mill residues and urban waste (municipal solid waste, and construction and demolition debris). Although mill resi- dues can be a valuable source because they are clean, dry and easily accessed, they are generally fully utilized. Moreover, mill residue supplies in Massachusetts have been declining in parallel with the contraction in lumber production. On the other hand, solid waste and C&D debris may be considered under-utilized, but are expensive to sort and can be difficult to recover due to contamination issues. Short-Rotation Wood Plantations DOER and DCR commissioned a study that included an evalu- ation of the potential of growing short-rotation willow crops in Massachusetts for bioenergy use (Timmons et al., 2008). In light of our forest biomass supply assessment, there are three reasons that the potential of this supply source on marginal agricultural lands may deserve more attention if DOER wishes to promote bioenergy development. First, our economic analysis has shown that the potential to produce forest biomass chips in the current pricing environment and with current policy incentives is significantly less than suggested by previous studies that were focused on forest growth. Second, although BCAP policies are now undergoing revision, the proposed rules offer significant subsidies for the establishment and development of wood energy crops (see policy review in Chapter 1). Third, if carbon emissions are an important consideration in state energy policies, closed-loop short-rotation crops have some obvious advantages when compared to natural forest biomass sources. 3.1.4 REPORT ORGANIZATION This report is organized as follows. Section 3.2 provides an in-depth analysis of biomass supplies from private lands in Massachusetts. We begin with a review of historical levels of timber harvesting since we believe this is fundamental to understanding future biomass supplies—biomass production often makes economic sense only when integrated with sawtimber harvests. The fore- cast for low-price biomass supply requires the review of three important topics: 1) costs of whole-tree harvesting; 2) low-value wood supply in sawtimber stands; 3) landowner willingness to increase harvest intensity. In order to generate a forecast of high- price biomass supplies, the discussion is extended to include: 1) the size of the operable land base after adjusting for biophysical factors and landowner characteristics; 2) landowner response to higher wood prices and higher per-acre income levels. Section 3.3 discusses the potential for harvesting “new” biomass supply from public lands, and covers both historical harvest levels and projections of wood harvests. Our forecasts for forest biomass supplies in Massachusetts are summarized by source for our two biomass stumpage price scenarios in Section 3.4. Section 3.5 reviews potential biomass production from other sources, including land clearing and conversion. In Section 3.6, we present our assessment of biomass supply from nearby states by evaluating their potential relative to Massachusetts. Key topics covered include timberland area, timber inventory, timber growth, forest products industry status and associated harvesting levels, and landowner characteristics. After devel- oping estimates of potential additional biomass production in the border region, we conclude by discussing some of the factors that determine where this wood might eventually be consumed. Some of our work and analysis has been presented in several Appendices, which include the following topics: 1) a review of results of previous studies on forest biomass availability in Massa- chusetts (Appendix 3-A); 2) logging residue data and methods for estimation (Appendix 3-B); 3) firewood production and consumption in Massachusetts (Appendix 3-C); 4) an analysis of biomass potential in southern New Hampshire (Appendix 3-D). 3.2 BIOMASS SUPPLY FROM PRIVATE LANDS IN MASSACHUSETTS Private timberlands in Massachusetts are by far the most impor- tant source of “new” or incremental forest biomass production because of their size and the ability of landowners to adjust their harvest decisions in response to changes in market conditions. The analysis in this section is organized as follows: 1) historical estimates of timber harvests; 2) review of potential supplies from logging residues; 3) projection of biomass supplies in the Low-Price Biomass scenario; and 4) projection of biomass supplies in the High-Price Biomass scenario. Our projections include a review of harvesting costs, and examine the important role of stumpage prices in influencing production volumes. 3.2.1 HISTORICAL ESTIMATES OF TIMBER HARVESTS ON PRIVATE TIMBERLAND The economics of forest biomass production are generally most favorable when biomass harvests are integrated with sawtimber harvests. In this section, we provide a detailed analysis of historical patterns of timber harvests in Massachusetts to lay the groundwork for our projections of sawtimber and other industrial roundwood harvests. Unless income incentives increase substantially under some scenarios that are described under our High-Price Biomass scenario, the harvesting footprint with biomass is likely to be very similar to that for industrial roundwood alone. Biomass production will then come from increasing the harvest intensity on these lands, by taking tops, limbs, and low-value standing trees. Unlike several states in the Northeast region, Massachusetts does not track and collect data on annual harvest levels. Thus, this analysis relies on forest cutting plans (FCPs) that are required by the state under the Forest Practices Act. Although FCPs have several BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 36 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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