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furnish bioenergy plants in Massachusetts would be about 110,000−190,000 green tons per year. With the assumption of high biomass stumpage prices, forest biomass supplies from adjacent counties would increase to about 515,000−665,000 green tons annually. Our projections for incremental forest biomass production in Massachusetts and the border counties are summarized in Exhibit 3-1. Although we have provided a range of estimates in this table, there are, of course, a wider set of possible outcomes for these scenarios. This uncertainty is largely due to our limited historical experience with biomass harvesting in Massachusetts, and this becomes a greater concern when we analyze the impact of much higher biomass prices. We have conducted sensitivity analysis of some of our key assumptions within this chapter. Perhaps the most significant source of uncertainty is how private landowners will respond to the prospect of earning higher income from biomass harvests. Another general issue is the acceptance and adoption of whole-tree harvesting by landowners, foresters, and loggers in Massachusetts—this is particularly important in scenarios involving electric power expansion since whole-tree harvesting would likely be necessary due to cost considerations. For the border counties, it is more difficult to address the issue of confidence intervals because our estimates were established relative to Massachusetts, and then scaled down to recognize that facilities outside of Massachusetts would compete in this same woodshed. Exhibit 3-1: Summary of Forest Biomass Fuel Supplies for 2010−2025 Low- and High-Price Biomass Scenarios 000 Green Tons per Year may not be difficult to procure wood at affordable prices in the early stages of expansion, but it could become more problematic as prices rise nearer to the levels assumed in the High-Price Biomass scenario. 3.1.3 POTENTIAL WOOD BIOMASS SUPPLIES FROM OTHER SOURCES This assessment has focused on the core issue of biomass produc- tion from forest sources. It is important to recognize that there are other biomass sources that could potentially make a substantial contribution to the supply of wood available for new bioenergy facilities in Massachusetts. These can be classified into three major categories: 1) wood from land clearing; 2) wood from mill residues and tree care/landscaping sources; and, 3) wood grown in short-rotation plantations. Wood From Land Clearing There is a high degree of uncertainty in estimating the area of land that is cleared each year in Massachusetts, the amount of wood removed from that land, and the current disposition of that wood. As a result, it is difficult to estimate the volume of incremental biomass supplies that could be generated from land clearing over the next 15 years. Holding the area of land cleared annually constant, we have calculated that a 10% increase in the recovery rate13 would yield an additional 30,000 green tons per year of biomass that could furnish an expansion in bioenergy plants. Given current disposal costs for cleared wood and current potential uses for that wood, it would seem that an increase in recovery rates from 30% to 70% (at high biomass stumpage prices) would provide reasonable bounds for the potential supply from this source. This translates to a maximum volume of 120,000 green tons of “new” biomass given our assumptions on the area of land cleared and the expected diversion of high-quality wood to other end-use markets. Wood Biomass From Mill Residues and Tree Care/ Landscaping Sources Among these other sources, the most significant is wood from tree care/landscaping sources. This wood is often referred to as “urban wood” which is somewhat of a misnomer because it includes wood not only from tree care in urban areas, but also wood from tree care from sources such as county parks and recreation areas and maintenance of electric power lines. The term can also be confusing because it is not always clear whether it includes “urban waste” such as construction debris. A literature review conducted in 2002 indicated that tree care/ landscaping sources accounted for 1.0 million tons (42%) out the total available supply of 2.5 million tons of non-forest wood biomass in Massachusetts (Fallon and Breger, 2002). However, given the difficulties in estimating this volume (noted in the report), this estimate is perhaps best used to suggest that the potential from 13 We define the recovery rate as the percentage of wood cleared that is used for industrial roundwood products or industrial and residential fuelwood. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Massachusetts Private Lands Public Lands Total Border Counties Combined Total Low-Price 150−250 0 150−250 110−190 260−440 High-Price 650−850 35 685−885 515−665 1,200−1,550 Note: Estimates have been rounded for this table. We have focused on two price scenarios for forest biomass supply, with the high-price scenario intending to provide an approximate upper bound for incremental biomass harvests. Clearly, these two price levels represent only two points on a supply curve that embodies many price-harvest combinations. A few comments on the shape of this curve are appropriate. At current/low price levels, the supply curve for private owners is presumed to be flat suggesting that any volume of forest biomass up to the range of 150,000−250,000 green tons per year could be procured at these prices. At high-end prices, we would expect that the slope of the curve would be relatively steep reflecting landowner resistance to harvesting additional acres due to the greater value that owners at the margin may place on non-timber amenities. This nonlinearity suggests that if bioenergy capacity increases in Massachusetts, it MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 35 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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