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residual stand (Fight et al., 2006). As noted earlier, our estimates indicate that log-length harvesting methods would add about $10−$15 to the cost of a green ton of chips. 3.1.2 MAJOR FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Here we summarize the major findings of our wood supply assessment: Forest Biomass Supply Available in Massachusetts with Low- Price Stumpage • At current prices for biomass stumpage, we estimate that about 150,000−250,000 green tons of “new” biomass could be harvested annually from forest lands in Massachusetts.12 Most of this material would be sourced from standing trees due to the small size of the forest industry in Massachusetts, and hence the limited supply of logging residues and limited opportunities for log merchandizing. This wood would be available to electric power, thermal, CHP or other bioen- ergy plants; however, if the wood is harvested as feedstock for electric power plants, whole-tree harvesting would be necessary to produce chips at $30 per delivered green ton. • We estimate that virtually all of the “new” forest biomass supply would be harvested from private lands. Given the low price of stumpage in this scenario, biomass producers would have economic access only to low-value wood and it would be harvested almost exclusively on sites that are already being harvested for sawtimber. If whole-tree harvesting operations are established for biomass production, it would also become economical to remove sawtimber logging residues from those same sites. Applying the ecological guidelines provided in Chapter 4 of this report, our projection shows that tops and limbs from industrial roundwood would account for about 15%−20% of the “new” biomass harvest from private lands. • We find that there would likely be little or no increase in biomass production from public lands. Our review of Forest Resource Management Plans and anticipated forest policies leads us to conclude that the total volume of wood harvested on public lands in 2010−2025 will be about the same level that we have observed during the past decade. We have assumed that biomass fuel will not be diverted from other end uses (such as pulpwood) in this scenario. Logging residues are not projected to contribute to supply because of ecological restrictions and poor economics. Forest Biomass Supply Available in Massachusetts with High- Price Stumpage • Higher biomass stumpage prices could dramatically affect the supply of biomass by providing economic incentives that bring more private land into timber production, increase the harvest intensity on all lands that are harvested, and divert wood from pulpwood and other end-use markets to biomass. With our scenario of biomass stumpage prices at $20 per green ton, per-acre income from wood sales could double and we estimate that about 685,000−885,000 green tons of “new” forest biomass could be produced annually in Massachusetts. • Increasedpriceswouldnotbeexpectedtoleadtohigherharvest levels on public lands. However, at these higher stumpage prices, biomass supplies would increase as wood from public lands would likely be diverted from pulpwood to bioenergy plants. The volumes would be small, however, and would account for only about 5% of “new” statewide forest biomass production. • We have estimated a “sustainable” level of biomass supply using the criteria that harvests do not exceed net growth and that biomass harvests can be maintained at the same level for the foreseeable future. Based on our estimates of operable private land area and our growth estimates in Chapter 5, we have calculated that average annual biomass supply could be 900,000 green tons per year. Thus, the high end of the range that we derived using our approach (885,000 green tons) would be considered “sustainable” by this definition. In addition, our analysis suggests that the “supply” estimates developed using forest-growth approaches would only be consistent with very high biomass stumpage prices. Forest Biomass Supply Available from the Border Counties The major uncertainty that accounts for this range is the average volume of biomass material removed from an acre. It is also possible that some pulpwood could be diverted to biomass fuel at relatively low biomass stumpage prices, but we have not introduced this potential shift in the Low-Price Biomass scenario. 12 MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 34 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY • Weevaluatedsuppliesinthebordercounties(NH,VT, NY, CT, and RI) by considering timberland area, timber inventory, growth rates, ownership characteristics, and forest products production. There is no simple scheme to weight these factors, but our best estimate is that incremental forest biomass production in the border counties would be about 50% greater than that of Massachusetts. The logic of our two scenarios still applies: at low biomass stumpage prices, “new” volumes would be limited because they come primarily from the additional harvest of low-value wood on sites already being logged for other commercial timber; at high biomass stumpage prices, the harvested land base would increase considerably, as would the harvest intensity on these sites. Biomassproducedintheborderregioncouldbeconsumedin the “local” market, shipped to Massachusetts, or shipped to the next ring of bordering counties and beyond. The eventual destination for this wood will depend on the location and timing of new capacity investment throughout the region and a variety of other factors such as transportation costs, infrastructure, and supply logistics. While this is a complex problem with a high degree of uncertainty, we think that as a general planning guide it would be prudent to assume that Massachusetts could successfully purchase only half of the available wood. Thus, in the Low-Price Biomass scenario, “new” forest biomass available from the border counties to •PDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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