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the basis for this growth. First is the presence of a large and well- developed forest products sector. Second, the design of Sweden’s tax system has strongly encouraged biomass development through a range of mutually reinforcing policies. Overall it appears that taxation has been a very effec- tive policy instrument in increasing biomass utilisation in Sweden throughout the 1990’s. This has particularly been the case in the heat sector, but, following market liberalisation, significant increases in the electricity sector have also been noted. It should be noted in this respect that the Swedish tax regime is long established and comprises multiple layers of VAT, energy and CO2 taxes, increasing the effectiveness of tax increases. There is also a complex and frequently modified system of allocating rebates to certain industries that has enabled the tax to be augmented as required to encourage biomass use at the expense of fossil fuels, while maintaining competitive industrial advantage (Cooper & Thornley, 2007). On the other hand, Faaij (2006) points out that France’s focus on biofuels and heat is primarily a function of excess capacity in its nuclear electricity production sector, making electrical generation from biomass unattractive. The government policies of non-European countries also could dramatically increase biomass energy generation. For example, China has established a variety of policy goals that will promote biomass energy development (Roberts, 2010). By 2020, China is proposing to build 24 GW of biomass power capacity, equiva- lent to more than eight 25 MW plants per month over the next decade, although Roberts notes this is overly ambitious and likely to be downgraded to 10 GW. Although most of China’s biomass appears to be based on agricultural wastes, plans do include increasing wood pellet production from two million tons per year in 2010 to 50 million tons per year by 2020 and developing 13.3 million hectares of forests to produce biomass feedstock. According to Roberts (2010), China has accounted for 23 percent of recent worldwide investment in biomass energy (compared with Europe’s 44 percent share). Policies in large forested countries like Canada are also aimed at promoting biomass energy development, although Roberts notes that Canada has been slow in developing its bioenergy resources and that most “meaningful” biomass policies are being put in place at the provincial level, for example Ontario’s feed-in tariffs and British Columbia’s carbon tax. Overall, growth of the biomass sector internationally could have important implications for the U.S. and Massachusetts. In Britain, two 300 MW biomass power plants are currently in the planning stages. These plants are projected to consume six million green tons of wood chips annually, purchased from around the globe, with New England identified as a possible source of woodchips (MGT Power, 2010). Given the potential for such increased international trade in biomass, Massachusetts forests could become suppliers of biomass regardless of whether any biomass plants are actually built in the state. 1.2.3 SustainabilityConcerns Although mainstream policies continue to promote biomass as a renewable and carbon friendly fuel, the international policy framework is beginning to require more detailed assess- ments of the carbon implications of bioenergy development. This more sophisticated approach to understanding the green- house gas implications of climate policy dates from the 1990s when researchers began building formal models to explore the impacts of biomass combustion on greenhouse gas levels, for example studies by Marland and Schlamadinger (1995).2 Work along these lines became a prominent feature of research conducted IEA Bioenergy Task 38, which is focused directly on the climate change implications of biomass combustion for energy. Researchers contributing to Task 38 have pointed out the difficulty of generalizing about the climate benefits of biomass combustion. This view was expressed in a December 2009 status report from IEA Bioenergy issued to coincide with the Copenhagen conference on climate change. This report provided a clearly articulated summary of the current, and in our view state-of-the-art, thinking on the impacts of forest biomass combustion on greenhouse gases. Ranking of land use options based on their contribution to climate change mitigation is also complicated by the fact that the performance of the different options is site-specific and is determined by many parameters. Among the more critical parameters are: • Biomass productivity and the efficiency with which the harvested material is used—high productivity and efficiency in use favour the bioenergy option. Low productivity land may be better used for carbon sinks, given that this can be accomplished without displacing land users to other areas where their activities lead to indirect CO2 emissions. Local acceptance is also a prerequisite for the long-term integrity of sink projects. • Thefossilfuelsystemtobedisplaced—theGHGemissions reduction is for instance higher when bioenergy replaces coal that is used with low efficiency and lower when it replaces efficient natural gas-based electricity or gasoline/ diesel for transport. • The initial state of the land converted to carbon sinks or bioenergy plantations (and of land elsewhere possibly impacted indirectly)—conversion of land with large carbon stocks in soils and vegetation can completely negate the climate benefit of the sink/bioenergy establishment. • The relative attractiveness of the bioenergy and carbon sink options is also dependent on the timescale that is used for the evaluation. A short timeframe (a few 2 For a more complete list of Task 38 background papers from the 1990s, see www.ieabioenergy-task38.org/publications/backgroundpapers/ backgroundpapers.htm#marland1 BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 11 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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