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to increase to $20 per green ton, we estimate that supplies of forest biomass from combined in-state and out-of-state sources could be as high as 1.2 to 1.5 million green tons per year. However, this high-price scenario is unlikely given current expectations of fossil fuel prices and existing renewable energy incentives. Figure 5 shows the potential bioenergy capacity that could be supported from these estimated volumes of “new” forest biomass in Massachusetts. The upper end of the range for Massachusetts forest biomass supplies under our high-price scenario is approxi- mately 885,000 green tons per year—this is close to the annual quantity of biomass that can be harvested without exceeding the annual net growth of the forest on the operable private land base. If additional forest biomass supplies that would be potentially available from out-of-state sources are taken into account, the biomass quantity and number of bioenergy facilities that could be furnished would be 50%–100% higher than shown in this table. Figure 5: Potential Bioenergy Capacity from “New” Forest Biomass Sources in Massachusetts Green Tons per Year Current Massachusetts Harvest * 325,000 Potential Forest Biomass Supply (Massachusetts only) ** Current Biomass Prices 200,000 High-Price Scenario 800,000 Number of Facilities Electric Power Capacity: Number of 50 MW Plants Current Biomass Prices 0.4 High-Price Scenario 1.6 Thermal Capacity: Number of 50 MMBtu/hr Plants *** Current Biomass Prices 16 High-Price Scenario 62 CHP Capacity: Number of 5 MW/34 MMBtu/hr Plants *** Current Biomass Prices 4 High-Price Scenario 15 Notes: * Average of industrial roundwood for 2001−2009. ** Based on mid-point of the range of volumes estimated for new biomass in Massachusetts. *** Thermal plants are assumed to operate 1800 hours per year, while CHP plants operate 7200 hours per year. Forest Sustainability and Biomass Harvests: In Massachusetts, the possibility of increased harvesting of biomass for energy has raised a number of sustainability issues at both the landscape and stand levels. At the landscape scale, potential impacts to a broad range of societal values arise with increases in biomass harvesting. However, in our low-price scenario for biomass, we anticipate that harvested acreage will not increase from current levels—biomass will come from removal of logging residues and poor quality trees at sites that would be harvested for timber under a business-as-usual scenario. Furthermore, in this scenario the combined volume of timber and biomass harvests represents less than half of the annual net forest growth across the state’s operable private forest land base. Under our high-price biomass supply scenario, although harvests still represent annual cutting on only about 1% of the forested lands in the state, the total harvest levels approach the total amount of wood grown each year on the operable private forest land base. Under either price scenario, however, harvests for bioenergy facili- ties could have more significant local or regional impacts on the landscape. These might include aesthetic impacts of locally heavy harvesting as well as potential impacts on recreation and tourism and the longer-term health of the wood products sector of the economy. We have outlined four general options encompassing a wide range of non-regulatory and regulatory approaches that the state may wish to consider if it determines that further actions are needed to protect public values at the landscape scale. • Option 1: Establish a transparent self-monitoring, self- reporting process for bioenergy facilities designed to foster sustainable wood procurement practices. • Option2:Requirebioenergyfacilitiestopurchasewoodfrom forests with approved forest management plans. • Option3:Requirebioenergyfacilitiestosubmitwoodsupply impact assessments. • Option 4: Establish formal criteria for approval of wood supply impact assessments—possible criteria might include limits on the amount of harvests relative to anticipated forest growth in the wood basket zone. At the stand level, the most significant sustainability concerns associated with increased biomass harvests are maintenance of soil productivity and biodiversity. Current Chapter 132 Massachu- setts forest cutting practices regulations provide generally strong protection for Massachusetts forests, especially water quality; however, they are not currently adequate to ensure that biomass harvesting is protective of ecological values across the full range of site conditions in Massachusetts. Other states and countries have recently adopted biomass harvesting guidelines to address these types of concerns, typically through new standards that ensure (1) enough coarse woody debris is left on the ground, particularly at nutrient poor sites, to ensure continued soil productivity and (2) enough standing dead wildlife trees remain to promote biodi- versity. While the scientific literature does not provide definitive advice on the appropriate practices for Massachusetts’ forests, recent guidance from the Forest Guild and other states provides the State Forestry Committee with a useful starting point for developing additional stand level standards that ensure continued protection of ecological values in Massachusetts forests. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 8 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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