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of total biomass emissions that are in excess of what would have been emitted from fossil fuel energy generation. Replacement of fossil fuels in thermal or combined heat and power (CHP) appli- cations typically has lower initial carbon debts than is the case for utility-scale biomass electric plants because the thermal and CHP technologies achieve greater relative efficiency in converting biomass to useable energy. As a result, the time needed to pay off the carbon debt and begin accruing the benefits of biomass energy will be shorter for thermal and CHP technologies when the same forest management approaches are used in harvesting wood. Figure 2: Carbon Debt Summary Table Excess Biomass Emissions as % of Total Biomass Emissions compared to what would have been the case if fossil fuels had been used over the same period—approximately 25% lower over the period under a rapid recovery scenario. For biomass replacement of coal-fired power plants, the net cumulative emissions in 2050 are approximately equal to what they would have been burning coal; and for replacement of natural gas cumulative total emis- sions are substantially higher with biomass electricity generation. Figure 4: Cumulative Carbon Dividends from Biomass Replacement of Fossil Fuel Biomass Cumulative % Reduction in Carbon Emissions (Net of Forest Carbon Sequestration) BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Scenarios Coal Electric 31% Thermal/ CHP Oil (#6) 2%-8% Oil (#2) Natural Gas 66% 9%-15% 33%-37% Year 2050 2100 Oil (#6) Coal, Thermal/ Electric CHP 25% -3% 42% 19% Gas, Gas, Thermal Electric -13% -110% 12% -63% The absolute magnitude and timing of the carbon debts and dividends, however, is sensitive to how landowners decide to manage their forests. Since future landowner responses to increased demand for forest biomass are highly uncertain, we modeled the recovery of carbon in growing forests under a number of alterna- tive management scenarios. For a scenario that results in relatively rapid realization of green- house gas benefits, the switch to biomass yields benefits within the first decade when oil-fired thermal and CHP capacity is replaced, and between 20 and 30 years when natural gas thermal is replaced (Figure 3). Under comparable forest management assumptions, dividends from biomass replacement of coal-fired electric capacity begin at approximately 20 years. When biomass is assumed to replace natural gas electric capacity, carbon debts are still not paid off after 90 years. Figure 3: Carbon Debt Payoff Fossil Fuel Technology Carbon Debt Payoff (yr) Oil (#6), Thermal/CHP 5 Coal, Electric 21 Gas, Thermal 24 Gas, Electric >90 Another way to consider greenhouse gas impacts of biomass energy is to evaluate at some future point in time the cumulative carbon emissions of biomass (net of forest recapture of carbon) relative to continued burning of fossil fuels. The Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act establishes 2050 as an important refer- ence year for demonstrating progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Figure 4, comparing 40 years of biomass emissions with 40 years of continued fossil fuel burning, shows that replacement of oil-fired thermal/CHP capacity with biomass thermal/CHP fully offsets the carbon debt and lowers greenhouse gas levels Forest Biomass Supply: Future new supplies of forest biomass available for energy generation in Massachusetts depend heavily on the prices that bioenergy facilities are able to pay for wood. At present, landowners in the region typically receive between $1 and $2 per green ton of biomass, resulting in delivered prices at large-scale electricity facilities of around $30 per green ton. Under current policies that are influenced by the competitive dynamics of the electricity sector, we do not expect that utility-scale purchasers of biomass will be able to significantly increase the prices paid to landowners for biomass. Consequently, if future forest biomass demand comes primarily from large-scale electric facilities, we estimate the total “new” biomass that could be harvested annually from forest lands in Massachusetts would be between 150,000 and 250,000 green tons—an amount sufficient to support 20 MW of electric power capacity—with these estimates potentially increasing by 50%−100% when out-of-state forest biomass sources are taken into account (these estimates do not include biomass from land clearing or other non-forest sources such as tree work and landscaping). This is the amount of incremental biomass that would be economically available and reflects the costs of harvesting, processing and transporting this material as well as our expectations about the area of land where harvest intensity is likely to increase. Thermal, CHP, and other bioenergy plants can also compete for this same wood—which could support 16 typically sized thermal facilities or 4 typical CHP plants—and have the ability to pay much higher prices on a delivered basis; thus, they have more options for harvesting and processing forest biomass and can outbid electric power if necessary. Paying higher prices to landowners for forest biomass could potentially increase forest biomass supplies significantly. For this to occur, electricity prices would need to rise, due to substantially higher fossil fuel prices or significant policy shifts. Thermal, CHP, and pellet facilities can already pay much higher prices for biomass at current energy prices, and would remain competitive if prices paid to landowners were to rise significantly. If these prices were MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 7 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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