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7. Conclusions In the near future, Latin America • and the Caribbean will face a growing demand for energy, driven by larger economies responding to international markets and national determinants such as social inclusion levels, industrialisation rates and the increase of urban areas. Therefore, in a climate change context, the region needs to shift towards a low-carbon development. The following conclusions summarise the key points • identified in this report, and are intended to contribute to the international discussions on climate change, energy policies and low- carbon development. • Based on the projected • economic annual growth of approximately 3% for the coming decades, the region will need to double the installed capacity for power generation up to 600 GW by 2050, when electricity demand will reach approximately 3.5 PWh/year. This will cost some $430 billion.93 • Since 2004, the region’s energy consumption grew by around 2.9% per year, leading • to an overall increase in GHG emissions of around 18%. 70% of the region’s GHG emissions are produced in five countries (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia) so reductions in the carbon intensity of their economic activity can have the highest impact. The share of renewables in the region’s energy mix is marginal. Furthermore, those countries with greater shares of RES tend to rely on large- scale hydropower. Most of the renewable regional share is represented by hydropower and biofuels, both of which have significant negative environmental, social and economic impacts. Renewable energy policies should be based on a sustainable approach that promotes the diversification of the energy matrix, using local resources, and encourages energy equity. The region’s development follows an extractive model, which has resulted in an unsustainable energy model that favours fossil fuels. Energy generation just responds to market demand, increasing the region’s carbon footprint. If the region is to shift towards a low- carbon development, countries must reduce the GHG emissions from their growing industries. About 85 million people live in rural areas without access to basic services. It is essential to direct efforts towards eliminating energy poverty and reducing the inequality experienced by rural communities, especially the most vulnerable ones. • Excluding hydropower, the region has a renewable energy potential of 80 PWh, capacity that exceeds the estimated regional electricity demand, equivalent to 3.5 PWh by 2050. These resources could be put at the region’s disposal by means of an energy policy based on a sustainable approach that promotes the diversification of the energy matrix using local resources and encourages energy equity. • Each country must develop its own low-carbon development policies, but cooperation needs to take place between countries to share knowledge and to ensure efficient use of resources, such as technical personnel and financial instruments, in order to produce significant impacts. • Based on the experience of large-scale hydropower plants and biofuel projects, Latin American and Caribbean countries should improve their project assessment processes and associated instruments. • Renewable energy projects should be implemented in a sustainable way, considering the environmental (local and global) and social and economic impacts in local communities. Otherwise, they will cause harm in the same way as traditional non-renewable energy projects. Special care should be taken with hydro and biofuels projects. • Improving energy equity is also an effort towards gender equity. The report shows that lack of clean energy makes life harder, particularly for women. Low-Carbon Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evolution, experiences and challenges 35PDF Image | Low-Carbon Development in Latin America
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