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Accurate data on global average PV module prices are difficult to obtain and in reality there is a wide range of prices in the market, depending on the cost structure of the manufacturer, market features, market pressures and module efficiency. Figure 6.1 presents trends in PV module prices in Europe by technology and source. Prices for PV modules have fallen by between 30% and 41% in the year to September 2012 and by between 51% and 64% for the two years to September 2012, depending on the technology and source for European buyers. Continued and significant overcapacity in the PV module supply chain has led to cut‐throat competition, with prices falling very close to “cash cost” levels as companies try to maintain cash flows. Crystalline silicon PV module prices from respected Chinese manufacturers had fallen to an average of just USD 0.75/W 25 between September and December 2012, with western manufacturers more expensive at around USD 1.1/W over this period. 25 This is an average figure. The lowest cost transactions from cash-strapped manufacturers are reported to have been as low as USD 0.4/W for some volumes. 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Crystalline Japan Thin-film CIS/CdTe Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Thin-film a-Si Thin-film a-Si/u-Si Sep-12 Crystalline Europe (Germany) Crystalline China FIGURE 6.1: AVERAGE MONTHLY SOLAR PV MODULE PRICES BY TECHNOLOGY IN EUROPE, 2009 TO 2012 SOURCE: SOLOGICO, 2012. The rate of decline in PV module prices is slowing, but continued overcapacity means that pressures on price will remain severe for the foreseeable future. PV module prices, after moving above the curve in 2006, have dropped significantly below the learning curve in 2012 (Figure 6.2). Even in normal times, projecting PV module cost reductions has been complicated by the high learning rate of 22%. With the PV market growing so rapidly compared to the installed base, projections of cost reductions can quickly become out of date. This uncertainty is further accentuated by overcapacity in the global PV module manufacturing base. Although conventional wisdom would suggest a slowing down of PV module cost reductions, further significant falls cannot be ruled out in the short‐term. However, given the current low level of prices, historical rates of cost reduction will yield much more modest cost reductions in absolute terms. The competiveness of PV will therefore increasingly be determined by BoS costs. 50 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An Overview 2011 USD/WPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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