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demand, resulting in domestic turbine prices averaging USD 658/kW in 2010 and falling to between USD 580 and USD 610/kW in 2011 (CWEA, 2012), before rebounding slightly to an average of USD 630/kW in 2012. Chinese manufacturers are therefore very competitive potential suppliers in the international market, although not all Chinese manufacturers’ products are necessarily suited to international markets. If the wind market were to emulate a similar dynamic to past events in the PV market, where Chinese overcapacity led to cut‐throat competition with significant cost and price declines, there could be further significant decreases in wind turbine prices as wind turbine costs converge globally. TABLE 4.3: TYPICAL TOTAL INSTALLED COSTS FOR WIND FARMS BY COUNTRY 4.1.2 TOTAL INSTALLED COSTS ONSHORE The cost reductions in wind turbine prices are taking some time to flow into installed project costs. Initial data for 2012 from the United States suggest that total installed costs in 2012 have fallen from an average of around USD 2 100/kW in 2011 to USD 1 750/kW in the first half of 2012 (for 2.6 GW of projects), with the most competitive projects still around USD 1 500/kW (Wiser and Bollinger, 2012). Average installed costs in 2011 in China were among the lowest in the world (Table 4.3), as overcapacity in manufacturing, a large domestic market, low commodity (steel and cement) costs and an ever‐increasingly competitive development industry drives down costs. Year for costs New capacity 2011 (GW) Cost range (USD/kW) China 2011 17.60 1 114 – 1 273 Australia 2011 0.23 1 600 – 3 300 Austria 2011 0.07 2 368 Brazil 2011 0.58 1 650 – 2 850 Denmark 2010 0.18 1 600 – 1 700 Europe (weighted average) 2010 10.28 ~1 600 Ireland 2011 0.24 2 000 to 2 600 Italy 2011 0.95 1 941 – 2 588 Japan 2011 0.17 3 900 Mexico 2011 0.05 2 000 Norway 2011 0.08 1 900 – 2 000 Portugal* 2011 0.38 1 810 Spain 2009 1.05 2 000 United States 2011 6.81 2 100 Note: * excludes grid connection and land costs. There are considerable economies of scale in wind power developments, shown by the fact that projects under 5 MW have significantly higher total installed costs than larger projects (Wiser and Bollinger, 2012). However, there do not appear to be the same economies of scale when shifting from the 5 MW to 20 MW range to higher capacities. Between 2009 and 2011, projects in the United States in the 0‐5 MW scale had total installed costs of around USD 2 500/kW, while those in the 5‐20 MW scale were around USD 2 300/kW. The average installed costs for projects 20 MW and above averaged around USD 2 100 to USD 2 200/kW (Wiser and Bollinger, 2012). SOURCE: GWEC, 2012; IEA WIND, 2011A; IEA WIND, 2011B; AND EWEA, 2011. The total installed costs of projects in non‐OECD countries show a significant spread, as can be seen in Figure 4.3. China and India have low‐cost local manufacturing bases and have developed local wind industries of some scale. Their costs are therefore significantly lower than in other non‐OECD regions. Other non‐OECD countries and regions do not have such extensive local manufacturing and project development industries which, combined with higher costs for project development, overseas engineers and staff, transport, basic materials (e.g. cement, steel, etc.), cranes, grid connection and other costs mean that installed costs are typically higher, with average costs 32 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An OverviewPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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