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III. NATIONAL ACTIVITIES UNITED STATES Achievement of this goal is essential to attaining the Program’s other long-term goal. • Increase the economically viable geothermal resource to 40,000 megawatts by the year 2040. Modelling indicates that achieving economic viability of 40,000 MWe by 2040 is achievable with the current Program budget. However, because few new plants are currently being developed, and because industry does not currently have the ability to install new capacity rapidly, installed capacity is likely to lag the economically viable resource until after 2040. Because current industry analyses suggest that only about 10,000 MWe of economically viable unmodified hydrothermal resources exist, the remaining 30,000 MWe must come from EGS. A staged approach is required to first demonstrate the feasibility of developing EGS reservoirs, and then extend the program to reduce development costs. Therefore, the Program has adopted an interim goal for EGS: • Prove the technical feasibility of EGS at multiple geothermal sites by 2010. The Program will perform R&D through both laboratory work and field projects. Systems analysis and technology assessment will identify the technology improvement possibilities with the greatest potential for improvement per dollar spent. Field projects will permit feasibility testing of R&D results, and field results will be integrated into R&D. Iterative feasibility testing will allow evaluation of technology improvements and measurement of progress toward meeting program objectives through 2010. A proof of concept field experiment, using either existing sites or a new EGS site, will be required to demonstrate that technical feasibility; i.e., achieving target performance values, has been achieved. R&D will include analysis of previous geothermal studies that extend back to work on hot dry rock technology performed by Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1970 to 1995. Previous work also includes geothermal system enhancement projects in other countries (e.g. England, Japan, Switzerland, and France/Germany). EGS-related work in other fields, such as reservoir stimulation and improved oil recovery technologies in the petroleum industry, is also an important source of information that will allow the program to leverage its funding. R&D relies on technology improvements at universities and national laboratories supported by the program. Other R&D with potential application to EGS, such as that performed by the mining industry and the geoscience programs of DOE’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences and the National Science Foundation, will be monitored, assessed, and adopted as appropriate. The Program will characterize the national EGS resource using data such as rock properties, depth to bedrock, thermal gradient, distance to load centers, and regional stress. That information will form the basis for supply curves and identify the best prospects for early EGS development. Field projects provide a platform for testing and evaluating new technology, and serve as sites to create and test EGS reservoirs. Options for field projects include (1) EGS-related operations at active hydrothermal fields (e.g., Coso, Geysers, Dixie Valley), (2) cost-shared collaborative projects with industry, (3) currently active projects in other countries (e.g., Soultz-sous-Forets, France), and (4) a dedicated DOE-operated field site. The first three options allow the program to gather information in a variety of geothermal environments and leverage its investment. The last option offers the opportunity to test and analyze new technologies in a controlled field environment. IEA Geothermal R&T Annual Report 2004.doc 131PDF Image | Geothermal Energy Annual Report 2004
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