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Geothermal Research and Tech IEA

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Geothermal Research and Tech IEA ( geothermal-research-and-tech-iea )

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21.4.2 Development Cost Trends In 2009, costs fluctuated considerably due to the global economic climate. Due to the drop in oil and gas prices, the geothermal industry benefited from increased rig availability and decreased drilling costs. Additionally, some oil and gas drillers sought to break into the geothermal market during this period (28). 21.5 Development Constraints Geothermal development continues to require high upfront investment and has high exploration risks. As a result the geothermal market relies heavily on federal, state, and local tax incentives to attract investors. Naturally existing hydrothermal reservoirs remain geographically limited to western states where the most desired reservoirs tend to be remotely located and require significant transmission infrastructure. As EGS technologies are developed and deployed the challenges surrounding location are expected to be lessened. However, a new set of challenges surface. Vast quantities of water will be needed to create the reservoirs and maintain production. In addition, the processes associated with EGS development have been shown to cause induced seismicity. Permitting and leasing processes are also challenges to geothermal development. 21.6 Economics 21.6.1 TrendsinGeothermalInvestment Islandsbanki predicts that the overall investment need for projects in development over the next five years as of October 2011 is US$ 12 billion (29). 21.6.2 Costs EIA 2010 estimates the costs for 50 MWe geothermal dual flash and binary power plants. Table 21.4 Cost of 50 MWe Geothermal Power Plants (30). Type Dual Flash Binary Overnight Capital Cost (2010$/kW) 5,578 4,141 Fixed O&M Cost (2010$/kW) 84.27 82.27 Variable O&M Cost (2010$/MWh) 9.64 9.64 21.6.3 TrendsintheCostofEnergy The levelized cost of electricity is expected to lower as R&D advances through the U.S. DOE‘s Geothermal Technologies Program to reduce the cost and risks of exploration, drilling and well field development. However, as high-quality confirmed resources are utilized, the remaining geothermal fields will be more expensive to confirm (if they show no surface expression) and economically produce power if the resource is marginal. Over the long-term with advancements in new technologies, including EGS, the country‘s geothermal reserves will increase dramatically. 249

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