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What Does the Future Hold for Geothermal Energy? Roland N. Horne horne@stanford.edu Stanford Geothermal Program Energy Resources Engineering Department, Stanford University, CA 94305-2220, USA The past five years have brought considerable changes to geothermal development. Historically high oil prices since 2005 have focused attention on renewable energy, supported by a global ambition to address greenhouse gas reduction. Geothermal developments have accelerated in many parts of the world, both in countries (such as New Zealand, Indonesia and the US) that have a traditional interest in "conventional" geothermal resources, as well as countries without a historical interest in geothermal energy (such as Australia and Germany). Some new developments have followed well-worn paths using conventional hydrothermal resources in volcanic regions, while others have struck out in new directions in Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) projects in nonvolcanic regions. Technology has allowed for developments of conventional resources with lower temperature, restricted water access, and constrained surface utilisation. EGS projects have launched in a variety of different directions and places (the US currently has six active EGS developments). In this context, the future expansion of geothermal developments depends on exploring for new fields and overcoming technical challenges in known but not-yet-exploited fields. Two issues that are currently being addressed by the world geothermal community are: (1) the "productivity gap" in the exploitation of fields that are too hot for downhole pumps, but too cool for flash production, (2) the development of reliable EGS development procedures that can ensure sustainable flow rates and assure the public that induced seismicity will not be a problem. Keywords: future, well productivity, EGS. 1. Introduction The past five years have represented a boom time for geothermal energy development in the world, with substantial interest and activity in many countries. As an example, the resurgence of interest in geothermal energy is evident in Figure 1, from the Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) April 2011 Annual U.S. Geothermal Power Production and Development Report. Although slowed somewhat by the financial crisis of 2008- 2009, installed capacity in the USA rose steadily during this period. Furthermore, it is clear that this new development was not merely “sweeping up the crumbs” – projects that had been set aside for later years before – as Figure 2 shows, there is a large number of projects under development in areas that are classified as “unproduced”. These are defined by GEA (2011) as: “Conventional Hydrothermal (Un-produced Resource): the development of a geothermal resource where levels of geothermal reservoir temperature and reservoir flow capacity are naturally sufficient to produce electricity and where development of the geothermal reservoir has not previously occurred to the extent that it supported the operation of geothermal power plant(s).” So the 111 projects in conventional/unproduced resources represent exploration and development in new areas not currently under production. Figure 1: Installed capacity in the USA, 2005-2010, from GEA, April 2011. Figure 2: A total of 146 projects under development in the USA, and their category (CH = conventional hydrothermal), from GEA, April 2011. Similar expansions have been seen in many other countries, with a total increase of installed capacity worldwide of 1782 MWe (from 8933 to 10,715 MWe) between 2005 and 2010 (Bertani, 2010). Figure 3, from Bertani (2010), shows the increase in installed capacity and produced Australian Geothermal Energy Conference 2011 109PDF Image | Alaska Geothermal Conference
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