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direct motivation for establishing a tax on carbon dioxide emissions and the criteria for evaluating its success.3 2. Establish a national carbon tax of $35 per ton emitted after 2014. A national carbon tax on energy producers, refiners, and industrial emitters would significantly change energy economics in the United States by pricing the external costs of carbon emissions. This tax will encourage a gradual shift to a low or non-hydrocarbon based energy economy by reducing the demand for the sources of emissions and raising revenue to develop alternative energy resources. Increasing the cost of carbon-emitting sources of energy will reduce demand, according to its elasticity with respect to price. Since energy consumption is sensitive to price, the higher costs for energy from hydrocarbons would first reduce consumption and then encourage the development of cleaner energy alternatives.4 Estimates suggest that a carbon tax of just $15 per ton would decrease total GHG emissions by 14 percent and carbon emissions specifically by 8.4 percent in the near term, with further substantial decreases to carbon emissions in the future.5 Mark Mehos, a solar energy expert at NREL, suggests that a carbon tax must be set at a rate sufficient to curb emitting behavior, adding that $30 per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted may be effective.6 A tax rate of $35 per metric ton, based on 2007 carbon dioxide emissions levels of 6,022 million metric tons, would generate approximately $210.76 billion in revenue.7 Recognizing the potential short-term economic strain of a carbon tax, it should be delayed until after 2014, allowing time for the economy to recover from the downturn; political circumstances may also be more favorable. Many public officials, including President Obama, support implementing a cap-and-trade system over a carbon tax. In a cap-and-trade system, the federal government would sell at auction a set number of carbon emission permits to companies each year. These permits could then be traded, creating a securitized market for pollution rights. While both approaches can be calibrated to have the same results on both the price and amount of carbon emitted, there are substantive differences. Under a cap-and-trade system, the government sets the amount of total carbon emissions allowed and the market sets the price per ton; a carbon tax prices emissions at a predetermined rate per ton, then allows the market to set the level of emissions. A carbon tax is preferable to a cap-and-trade system because it is simpler, more transparent, and less susceptible to loopholes. Cap-and-trade systems require an exchange market to form for the permits to be traded, the carbon tax does not. Cap-and- trade is, according to Tom Weimer, Staff Director for House Committee on Energy Independence and Climate Change, a hidden or covert tax on carbon emissions.8 This makes it more politically palatable, but not as transparent to American citizens. Finally, cap-and-trade pricing schemes are flexible, which allows policymakers to provide loopholes for special interest groups or render the system ineffective at reducing emissions. For example, cap-and-trade polices often include a safety valve provision, a 167PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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