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the future. The trade imbalance resulting from dependence on hydrocarbon imports presents additional costs for the U.S. economy. The prior abundance and affordability of hydrocarbons enabled the creation of an inefficient energy infrastructure, and prevented the technological innovation that could replace these resources. Finally, there are negative externalities, such as climate change, associated with the use of hydrocarbons that are not incorporated into the price. Energy expenditures represent a significant portion of the national gross domestic product (GDP). In 2007, energy expenditures cost the United States $1.2 trillion, representing 8.8 percent of GDP. Dependence on hydrocarbons makes the economy susceptible to supply shortages and dramatic price increases. The sharp increase in the price of oil during 2008 raised energy expenditures as a share of GDP to 9.8 percent, its highest level in more than twenty years.24 The proportion of energy expenditures to GDP has since lessened with the rapid decline in energy prices and the onset of global economic recession. Although the current volatility of the world oil market may increase the short term cost of energy expenditures relative to GDP, total energy expenditures are predicted to range between $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion (2007 dollars) by 2030, representing 5.6 percent of GDP.25 This reduction in relative energy expenditures is attributed to continued advances in energy efficiency that will lower the energy intensity of the U.S. economy.26 Finite/Exhaustible Resource One of the primary economic reasons for an energy transition is the finite nature of hydrocarbon sources of energy. As hydrocarbon resources are depleted they will become more expensive, eventually reaching a point where continued use becomes impractical or impossible. Exhaustible resources will cease to be used when substitutes reach cost parity with the resource. Since hydrocarbon energy prices are expected to increase in the future and the cost of renewable energy technologies are expected to continually decrease, renewable energy conversion technology will eventually become more cost effective than hydrocarbon based methods, making the transition from hydrocarbons to renewables essential to future cost savings. Although hydrocarbons are being depleted, they remain an abundant source of energy; it is primarily the supply of oil that is a matter of concern. Hydrocarbons are, however, depleted much faster than supplies are replenished. If substitutes are not developed and hydrocarbon use continues at current levels, it does not matter how much coal or natural gas there is to supplement dwindling oil supplies – eventually these resources will also be exhausted. This makes an eventual transition away from hydrocarbons an immutable necessity. The question is when the transition should begin and how quickly it should proceed. While it is imperative that the United States find new sources and methods of generating energy to replace unsustainable hydrocarbon dependence, the other costs of dependence on hydrocarbons make the energy transition a priority now. 11PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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