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Consumption Analysis Energy consumption is classified according to four broad sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation usage. By increasing the demand for housing, transportation, and consumer goods/services, population growth will increase energy demand by 0.5 percent per year.19 The EIA estimates that total energy consumption will be 113.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030.20 Low economic growth for the near future, however, is likely to reduce the rate of growth in total energy demand. Although average energy use per person is projected to remain stable through 2030, growth in total energy consumption is predicted across all sectors. Residential energy use is expected to increase due to population growth and expanding household uses for electricity21 from 11.4 quadrillion to 12.4 quadrillion Btu by 2030.22 Commercial and industrial energy consumption is highly dependent on rates of economic growth and will vary widely across industries depending on the energy intensity of the industry. By 2030, commercial energy use is expected to grow by 20 percent, from 8.5 quadrillion to 10.6 quadrillion Btu, as the commercial sector requires more space, and therefore more electricity, for their operations. The industrial sector is the second largest consumer of energy and presently requires 25.3 quadrillion Btu. This sector is expected to need 0.2 percent more energy annually, requiring an additional 1 quadrillion Btu by 2030. The transportation sector consumes the largest amounts of energy of every year and the growth in demand for this sector is expected to increase from 28.8 quadrillion to 31.9 quadrillion Btu by 2030.23 If nothing is done to reduce the amount of energy consumed annually, or to develop new sources of energy, then increased demand for energy will continue to be met with hydrocarbons. Since coal and natural gas generate the nation’s electricity and petroleum propels the nation’s transportation, and the composition of the U.S. energy supply is not expected to dramatically change, then growth in energy demand means greater use of hydrocarbons. There are significant economic, geopolitical, and environmental reasons, however, that will make it difficult to fulfill these growing requirements for energy if the United States remains dependent on hydrocarbon energy sources. Economic Issues of Dependence on Hydrocarbons Energy is a critical production factor for all goods and services, and its cost affects the entire economy. Energy is necessary for producing food, manufacturing and transporting goods, and providing services throughout the economy, and also has numerous household applications. Since its cost affects the price of everything that requires energy, an increase in energy costs will negatively impact the economy by raising prices and/or reducing demand for many other goods and services. There are several economic costs associated with dependence on hydrocarbons that create an incentive for an energy technology transition. The finite nature and expected increase in the price of hydrocarbons will make them an inadequate and costly energy source in 10PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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