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Figure 22: Change in Oil Reserves by Period, Venezuela and Latin America 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 80-90 Venezuela 90-00 00-10 Other Latin America Source: BP Energy Statistics and author’s own calculations Instead of devising a mechanism to ensure maximum extraction of rents and participation by only the most technically competent companies, the Chávez administration invited companies based purely on geopolitical interests. Preference was given to companies from China, Russia, and other developing nations. PDVSA has ambitious production goals, planning to increase output to 4.15 million b/d by 2015. However, an average 40 percent per year rise in government spending since 2008 has forced the Venezuelan NOC to borrow heavily, pushing its debt level up 138 percent between 2008 and 2011. The company’s ability to meet its ambitious expansion plans remains in doubt. IEA expects Venezuela to produce around 3.9 million b/d by 2035, of which 2.3 million b/d would be unconventional extra heavy crude. Chávez’s poor health and the proximity of the presidential elections leaves Venezuela’s political outlook uncertain. The country’s economic situation is delicate as it enters what can be characterized as the third phase of macroeconomic populism: “In Phase 3 of macroeconomic populism, pervasive shortages, extreme acceleration of inflation, and an obvious foreign exchange gap lead to capital flight and demonetization of the economy. The budget deficit deteriorates violently because of a steep decline in tax collection and increasing subsidy costs. The government attempts to stabilize by cutting subsidies and by a real depreciation. Real wages fall massively, and policies become unstable. It becomes clear that the government is in a desperate situation.”18 As past populist experiences show, and Dorbush and Edwards described in their paper, the following phase brings a drastic economic adjustment under a new government. 18 Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards, The Macroeconomics of Populism (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), 11. 26 billion barrelsPDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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