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China is a significant investor in Latin America’s hydrocarbon sector. According to a recent study by the Inter-American Dialogue,5 Chinese banks have loaned approximately US$75 billion to Latin America since 2005. That surpasses loans from the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the US Export-Import Bank combined. An important source of financing, China is also a key direct investor. China involvement in Latin American hydrocarbon activities takes two forms. One is as a traditional oil company, operating directly when permitted or as a partner in joint ventures. China also secures oil supplies via loans-for-oil. The Inter-American Dialogue estimated that China will receive 1.5 billion barrels of oil for its loans to Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela. For non-creditworthy countries such as Argentina, Ecuador, or Venezuela, these loans have provided essential access to the capital needed to finance investments. In the 1990s, no country would have dared to call for nationalization or expropriation of assets held by foreign companies. In fact, governments advertised their support for mechanisms to reduce investors’ risks. That is no longer the case. Hugo Chávez mocked the risk caused by the expropriation of U.S. interests in the Orinoco belt, suggesting that Chinese companies would be happy to replace them. The Chinese alternative became a common theme of populist leaders during the recent wave of expropriations and nationalizations. However, Chinese companies have shown that their assessments of investment opportunities are, like those of any private company, based on careful evaluation of risks and opportunities. Chinese companies may not be burdened by the transparency and anti-corruption rules governing U.S. companies, but Chinese companies are as careful as any foreign investor at protecting their investments. The challenge facing future oil production in Latin America Substantial investment throughout the petroleum value chain is required if Latin America is to meet its growing demand for oil products. According to the IEA, Latin America would need to invest nearly US$3.5 trillion in total energy infrastructure between 2011 and 2035 and approximately US$1.9 trillion in the oil sector alone. OPEC forecasts that Latin America’s refining sector alone needs more than US$100 billion in investment over the next 25 years.166 As shown in the following graph, despite recent discoveries in Brazil, most growth in petroleum reserves will come from the addition of heavy crude oil from Venezuela. That means any long-term oil production outlook will be profoundly impacted by that country’s energy policy and political developments. 5 Kevin P. Gallagher, Amos Irwin, Katherine Koleski, “The New Banks in Town: Chinese Finance in Latin America”(Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2012). 16 Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2011. 25PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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