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D.8.5 Cost Comparison Definitive cost estimates for an indirect two-tank storage system based on detailed design drawings and material takeoffs were developed by Nextant (2001). The unit costs were $36.40/kWht for 470 kWht system and $31/kWht for a 688-kWht system. The SunLab projection appears to be conservative (on the high side) based on the previous estimates. The direct two-tank storage value of $12.68/kWht in the SunLab projection also appears to be conservative (on the high side) based on the power tower estimated values of $8.65/kWht (Solar 50) and $8.25/kWht (Solar 100). The direct thermocline system value of $11.73/kWht also appears to be conservative (on the high side) based on the Nextant estimates, which indicate a 35% cost reduction ($8.37 kWht) going from a two-tank system to a thermocline system. Since the values used in the SunLab projections appear to be at least 25% higher than expected based on other thermal storage estimates, the SunLab values were used in the cost analysis. D.9 CAPITAL COST COMPARISON The SunLab model projects parabolic trough plant capital and O&M costs based on various technology advances and commercial deployment predictions. The SunLab projections are considered the best case analysis where the technology is optimized and a high deployment rate is achieved. S&L developed capital and O&M costs based on a more conservative approach whereby the technology improvements are limited to current demonstrated or tested improvements and with a lower rate of deployment than used in the SunLab model. The two sets of estimates, SunLab’s and S&L’s, provides a band in which the costs can be expected to be, assuming the parabolic trough technology reaches the projected levels of deployment. A comparison of key parameters used for the estimates is summarized on Table D-27. Table D-27 — Key Parameters Comparison D-37 SL-5641 Final Deployment, MW Cumulative Deployment, MW 2004 2007 SunLab S&L SunLab S&L 300 300 600 300 650 300 1,250 600 2010 2015 SunLab S&L SunLab 1,200 750 2,400 2,450 1,350 4,850 S&L 1,000 2,350 2020 SunLab S&L 400 400 5,250 2,750PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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