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D-26 SL-5641 Final used in the cermet to give better high temperature performance and stability. Both the design work and the coating development are being funded in the current DOE budget and will be continued next year. Alternate HCE designs (Zhang et al. 1998; Morales and Ajona 1998; San Vicent, Morales, and Gutiérrez 2001) are under various stages of development that indicate lower cost than the Solel UVAC HCE, although at reduced efficiency levels. Reduced HCE efficiency will result in a lower net annual solar-to-electric efficiency and require a larger collector area. Schott Glass, a large international supplier of specialty glass and related products, has recently announced its entry into the HCE supply market. However, start-up of HCE production is a significant cost, and a viable market growth is imperative to justify market entry for a new supplier. D.5.3 Scale-Up Cost reductions due to scale-up is not considered applicable since the collector area for the same net annual solar-to-electric efficiency, and thus the number of HCE, is directly proportional to the plant size. The collector area is inversely proportional to the efficiency and will influence the HCE cost by reducing the collector area with the improvement of the efficiency. D.5.4 Production Volume Cost reductions were projected based on evaluation of technology improvements and a progress ratio of 0.92. The Case 1 deployment values are used in the S&L evaluation. The Case 2 deployment values, used in the SunLab projections, are provided for comparison of the production volume between the two cases in Table D-16. Table D-16 — Number of HCE Number HCE, Cumulative Case 1 Deployment Case 2 Deployment 2004 57,545 57,545 2007 219,535 219,535 2010 380,117 520,817 2015 735,606 1,076,652 2020 1,265,782 2,225,366PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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