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B-4 SL-5641 Final CUM = the cumulative production over time b = the experience index The cost reduction is (1-2b) for each doubling of cumulative production, where the value (2b) is called the progress ratio (PR). The progress ratio is used to express the progress of cost reductions for different technologies. The formula is simplified for use as follows: PR = (C2/C1) 1/(no. of doublings) Where: Number of doublings = log 2 (Q2/Q1) C1 = cost of initial unit produced Q1 = production quantity for the initial unit cost C2 = desired cost of unit produced Q2 = cumulative production quantity for desired unit cost PR = Progress Ratio Example: The cost of a 148-m2 heliostat is $160 per m2 based on production of 227,000 m2. The cost estimate based on a production of 56,000,000 m2 is $109. The progress ratio is 0.95. Number of doublings = log 2 (56,000,000/227,000) = 7.9 PR = ($109/$160) (1/7.9) = 0.95 Many of the previous studies that assessed the cost reduction potential for tower and trough technologies based their findings on experience curves, including the World Bank (1999). As pointed out in the Tegan report (2001), “the review documents do not make a strong case that the cost of technologies (particularly the solar field) can be reduced to a point that they approach economic viability....” His primary example was the collector field: “the ‘learning curve’ arguments put forth lack sufficient backup to be credible given the fact that the materials of construction are already commodities and the fabrication techniques, for the most part standard.” He also stated that he believed cost reductions are likely “via a combination of ‘learning curve’ and technology refinement.” In response, S&L performed a thorough review of the cost reduction potential for heliostats. Heliostat cost reduction potential is more difficult to estimate since it is not based on actual costs with significant volume produced, whereas trough costs and the cost reductions are known based on actual SEGSPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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