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B-3 SL-5641 Final B.4 TECHNICAL IMPROVEMENTS Projected technical improvements that reduce costs by improving plant efficiency or by reducing initial capital costs were evaluated with respect to probability of the improvement and the estimated magnitude of cost reduction. The projected technical improvements investigated were those identified in the SunLab models, and the probability and magnitude of cost reductions are based on data from DOE, NREL, Sandia, and members of the CSP industry, including technology assessments and supporting studies for troughs and towers. B.5 ECONOMY OF SCALE Economy of scale was used, as appropriate; to estimate or evaluate cost estimates for components. Scaling factors were used to estimate the cost of a new size or capacity from the known cost for a different size or capacity. The Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) defines this method of estimating as plant component ratios (Humphreys and English 1993). The relationship is based on the following formula: C2 = C1 (S2/S1) Sf Where: C2 = desired cost of equipment at size (or capacity) of S2 C1 = desired cost of equipment at size (or capacity) of S1 Sf = scaling factor Example: If the cost of a 95-m2 heliostat is $13,654 ($143.73 per m2), then the cost of a 148-m2 heliostat is estimated at $19,466 ($131.53 per m2) based on a scaling factor of 0.80. C2 = $13,654 (148/95) 0.8 = $19,466 B.6 VOLUME PRODUCTION (VOLUME AND LEARNING CURVE) Experience curves define how unit costs decrease with cumulative production. The specific characteristics of the experience curve are that the cost declines by a constant percentage with each doubling of the total number of units produced. The formula is as follows: CCUM = C0 x CUMb Where: CCUM = the cost per unit as a function of output C0 = the cost of the first unit producedPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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