Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

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Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts ( assessment-parabolic-trough-and-power-tower-solar-technology )

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5-55 SL-5641 Final Boeing optimization codes, and increased peak solar flux based on operational experience of previous plants. The risk in achieving these projections is average. The information and specific basis for the efficiency increase is propriety but the concepts for efficiency increases are reasonable: reduced receiver thermal losses due to thermal flux increasing and increased receiver tube surface absorbtivity as a result of Boeing R&D. • The projected efficiency increase for thermal storage is 1.2% and should be achieved based on using the same technology demonstrated at Solar Two and reducing heat loss due to the tank surface area-to-volume ratio decreasing with increasing tank size. • Improved parasitic power efficiency of 3.6% is a result of increasing the plant size. As the size of a plant increases, the parasitic power efficiency decreases exponentially. The risk of not achieving parasitic power efficiency improvements is low. • Improved plant availability efficiency of 2 percentage points from 92% to 94% is a result of the operational knowledge and equipment reliability improvements gained from experience in operating numerous plants. The availability of tower technology should be similar to the demonstrated high availability of the SEGS plants. A mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 16.6% represents an average risk. Sargent & Lundy estimated net annual solar-to-electric efficiency to be 16.1% by limiting the technology improvements to currently demonstrated technology, tested improvements, and realistic assumptions. The difference between SunLab and S&L estimates is that S&L limited the mirror cleanliness to an efficiency of 95% based actual experience at Kramer Junction and there is no proven technology or methods to achieve cleanliness above 95%. 5.8.2.3 Long Term (2020) The SunLab projected long-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 18.1%, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points from the mid-term projected efficiency of 16.6%. This improvement is mainly attributable to the following: • Improved steam turbine cycle efficiency of 3.8 percentage points as a result of increasing from 100 MW to 220 MW and use of advanced dual reheat turbine at 640°C. • Improved collector efficiency of 0.7% as a result of new advanced heliostat design. The risk of achieving the long-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 18.1% is high based on projecting advanced technology being available for advanced steam turbines and heliostats. However, the risk is greatly reduced if (a) the tower technology is successfully deployed to the extent that the competitive market prompts research and development of technological advances for heliostats, (b) the competitiveness of the energy market

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