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5-54 SL-5641 Final decreases in heat loss due to the tank surface area-to-volume ratio decreasing with increasing tank size. The risk of achieving the near-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 13.7% is low, since the technology has been demonstrated at Solar One and Solar Two, the proposed enhancements do not constitute a change to the basis technology, and the proposed design enhancements are reasonable. 5.8.2.2 Mid Term (2010) The SunLab projected mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 16.6%; an improvement of 2.9 percentage • Improved collector efficiency of 0.3% points from the near-term projected efficiency of 13.7%, mainly attributable to these improvements: • Improved steam turbine cycle efficiency of 2 percentage points as a result of increasing from 15 MW to 100 MW. • Improved receiver efficiency of 4.8% as a result of increases in the solar flux level from reduced thermal losses. • Improved parasitic efficiency of 3.6% as a result of the increasing from 15 MW to 100 MW. • Improved thermal storage efficiency of 1.2% The risk of achieving the mid-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 16.6% is average based on the following: • The collector size is being increased from 95 m2 to 148 m2 heliostats. There are no significant technical design changes to the heliostat. The risk of increasing to a 148 m2 heliostat is low based on the following: (a) the technology of the 148-m2 heliostat is essentially the same as the 95-m2 heliostat, (b) ATS has performed detailed engineering and design for the 148-m2 heliostat and (c) forty-five 148-m2 collectors (2 heliostats and 43 PV trackers) have been built and are in operation. • The projected collector efficiency is from (a) increases in field availability from better maintenance practices and updated control systems, and (b) increases in mirror cleanliness. S&L projected that there would be no increase in efficiency as a result of mirror cleanliness efficiency demonstrated at Kramer Junction. The risk of increasing mirror cleanliness is mid to high as a result of the research required to develop materials and cleanliness methods. • There are numerous steam turbines in the 100-MWe range in operation throughout the world. The efficiency was independently determined by S&L using the General Electric STGPR software program to be 41.4%, which is slightly lower than the 42.3% efficiency used by SunLab. • The projected receiver efficiency increase is 4.8 percentage points from 78.3% to 83.1%. Boeing has projected the increase based on further elimination of components, development ofPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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